KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Friday, August 10, 2018  

8:30 AM ET. July Real Earnings

8:30 AM ET. July CPI

                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -0.3%)

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +3.0%; previous +2.9%)

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.3%; previous +2.3%)

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

2:00 PM ET. July Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt

Monday, August 13, 2018  

  N/A               U.S: Victory Day in Rhode Island

Tuesday, August 14, 2018  

6:00 AM ET. July NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

                       Small Business Idx (previous 107.2)

7:45 PM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W%

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M%

8:30 AM ET. July Import & Export Price Indexes

                       Import Prices (previous -0.4%)

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.3%)

                       Petroleum Prices (previous -0.8%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

11:00 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Q2 Household Debt and Credit Report

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  

The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as the global equity markets retreat due to the mounting currency crisis in Turkey, which raises the alarm for possible contagion into other markets.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that Thursday's high might have marked a double top with July's high. If September extends the rally off last-Monday's low, July's high crossing at 7530.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 7387.55 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 7166.75 would confirm a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is July's high crossing at 7530.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 7166.75. Second support is June's low crossing at 6956.00.    

The September S&P 500 gapped down and was lower overnight due to currency crisis in Turkey. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top has likely been posted with Tuesday's high. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2826.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, January's high crossing at 2885.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2863.00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2885.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2826.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2787.01.     

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight and appears to be breaking out to the topside of the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 143-28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 139-11 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 143-28. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 141-27. Second support is May's low crossing at 139-11.  

September T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.252 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of July's high crossing at 120.200. If September resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 118.295 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.252. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 120.200. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.    

ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"

ENERGY MARKETS: SeptemberNymex crude oil was slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 62.99 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 69.92 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction  high crossing at 70.43. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 72.98. First support is July's low crossing at 66.29. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.99.    

September heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 218.57 are needed to renew the rally off July's low. Closes below last-Thursday's low would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.59. First resistance is July's high crossing at 223.88. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.73. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.59. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.85.

September unleaded gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at 197.15 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 210.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 215.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 217.41. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 196.03. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 189.92.

September Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 2.973 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.796 would confirm a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 2.959. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 2.973. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.859. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.796.  

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar soared to a new high for the year overnight as investors sought the Dollar as a safe haven to other currencies. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above July's high crossing at 95.44 would confirm an upside breakout of the June-August trading range thereby opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.34 would would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 95.44. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the reaction low crossing at 93.87. Second support is July's low crossing at 93.44.  

The September Euro was sharply lower overnight as it marked a downside breakout of the May-July trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 117.90. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 118.51. First support is the overnight low crossing at 114.61. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78. 

The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3075 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3075. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3220. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.2752. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600.  

The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the May-August trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Tuesday's, July's low crossing at 0.9984 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0174 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.0204. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. First support is July's low crossing at 0.9984. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880. 

The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 77.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.36. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is July's low crossing at 75.31. Second support is June's low crossing at 74.80.  

The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9061 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.8943 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9061. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.9198. First support is July's low crossing at 0.8867. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 0.8805. 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was lower overnight as it extends this week's narrow trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1224.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1224.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1257.40. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1207.40. Second support is the 87% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90.

September silver was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the July-2017 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15.145 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 15.700 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.700. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.036. First support is July's low crossing at 15.185. Second support is the July-2017 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15.145. 

September copper was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-weeks. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at 267.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the late-July high crossing at 286.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 286.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 293.55. First support is July's low crossing at 267.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74.

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

December corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Analysts expect this morning’s WASDE report to show U.S. ending stocks for 2017/18 to decline slightly from USDA’s July estimates of 2.027 billion bushels to 2.015 billion. Analysts expect 2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks to come in around 1.636 billion bushels, up from USDA’s July estimates of 1.552 billion. Brazil’s Conab has lowered its assessment of their second-corn crop from July estimates to a total production of 2.179 billion bushels. That would be an almost 18% year-over-year decline with an average corn yields at 73.4 bpa.Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange is predicting a record-breaking corn crop for 2018/19, with a total production between 1.772 billion and 1.811 billion bushels. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.99. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.75. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.65 1/4.  

December wheat was lower overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.56 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the July-2017 high crossing at 6.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 6.13. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at 6.22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.83 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.56 3/4.        

December Kansas City Wheat closed down 6 1/2-cents at 6.04 1/4. 

December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the July-2017 high crossing at 6.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.62 1/4 would confirms that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6.26. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at 6.42. First support is 10-day moving average crossing at 5.93 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.62 1/4. 

December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.04 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6.56. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.35 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.04 1/4.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans was lower overnight. Analysts expect that the USDA will lower its 2017/18 U.S. soybean ending stocks in this morning’s WASDE report from its July estimate of 465 million bushels to 463 million bushels. Analysts also expect the USDA to increase its estimates for 2018/19 U.S. ending soybean stocks from 580 million bushels to 648 million bushels. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.84 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.42 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.84 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.

December soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 348.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 330.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 337.60. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 348.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 330.90. Second support is July's low crossing at 321.50.  

December soybean oil was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.54 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 28.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.54. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 31.29. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 28.39. Second support is July's low crossing at 29.78. 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

October hogs closed up $3.00 at $51.40. 

October hogs closed limit up on Thursday as it consolidated some of this summer's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 46.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.61 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.61. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 55.98. First support is today's low crossing at 47.82. Second support is weekly support crossing at 46.24.  

October cattle closed down $1.95 at 109.05. 

October cattle close lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 108.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline high crossing at 113.33 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 112.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 108.18. Second support is July's low crossing at 105.48.  

October Feeder cattle closed down $0.78 at $149.20. 

October Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off July's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 152.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 153.45. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 155.38. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 145.42.    

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 11.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 10.56 is the next downside target.      

September cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this summer's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 19.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

October sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. 

October cotton closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends decline off July's high, the reaction low crossing at 86.90 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 92.48 is the next upside target.