KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Friday, August 10, 2018 

8:30 AM ET. July Real Earnings

8:30 AM ET. July CPI

                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -0.3%)

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +3.0%; previous +2.9%)

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.3%; previous +2.3%)

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

2:00 PM ET. July Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt

Monday, August 13, 2018 

  N/A              U.S: Victory Day in Rhode Island

Tuesday, August 14, 2018 

6:00 AM ET. July NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

                       Small Business Idx (previous 107.2)

7:45 PM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W%

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M%

8:30 AM ET. July Import & Export Price Indexes

                       Import Prices (previous -0.4%)

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.3%)

                       Petroleum Prices (previous -0.8%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

11:00 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Q2 Household Debt and Credit Report

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""

The September NASDAQ 100 closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off last-Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, July's high crossing at 7530.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 7166.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 7530.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 7166.75. Second support is June's low crossing at 6956.00. 

The September S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this summer's rally, January's high crossing at 2885.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 2791.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2863.00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2885.00. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2791.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2784.61.  

The Dow closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off June's low, February's high crossing at 25,800.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,317.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 25,800.35. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 26,616.71. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,317.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,959.42.      

INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""

September T-bonds closed up 26/32's at 143-14.

September T-bonds closed higher on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 143-29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 139-11 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 143-29. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 141-27. Second support is May's low crossing at 139-11.       

September T-notes closed up 80-points at 119-240.

September T-notes closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.253 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 118.295 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 120.200. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.      

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

September crude oil posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 62.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 69.92 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 70.43. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 72.98.First support is July's low crossing at 66.29. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.99. 

September heating oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, July low crossing at 204.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 218.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 218.57. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 223.88. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 208.60. Second support is July's low crossing at 204.74.

September unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off the late-July high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at 197.15 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 210.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 213.64. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 215.31. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 196.03. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 189.92.

September Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 2.973 is the next upside target.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.785 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.959. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 2.973. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.843. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.785.   

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The September Dollar closed higher on Thursday while extending the June-August trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 93.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 95.44. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the reaction low crossing at 93.87. Second support is July's low crossing at 93.44.    

The September Euro closed lower on Thursday while extending the May-July-trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 117.90. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 118.52. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.    

The September British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3232 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3100. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3232. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2857. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 1.2819.

The September Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, July's low crossing at 0.9984 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0174 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.0204. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. First support is July's low crossing at 0.9984. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 20016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880.

The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 77.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.36. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is July's low crossing at 75.31. Second support is June's low crossing at 74.80.  

The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above resistance marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9070 would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172. If September renews the decline off March's high, July's low crossing at 0.8867 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9065. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172. First support is July's low crossing at 0.8867. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 0.8805.  

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

October gold closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a pause in this summer's decline or a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1226.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1226.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1259.30.First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1207.40. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90.

September silver closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 15.700 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 15.145 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.700. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.058. First support is July's low crossing at 15.185. Second support is weekly support crossing at 15.145.        

September copper closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 286.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 286.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 294.22. First support is July's low crossing at 267.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74. 

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

December Corn closed down 2 1/2-cent at 3.82 1/2. 

December corn closed lower on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the past two-weeks. Corn export sales found 21.8 million bushels in old crop sales, plus another 25.9 million bushels in new crop sales, for a total of 47.7 million bushels. That was slightly ahead of trade estimates of 43.3 million bushels but slightly behind the prior week’s tally of 50.3 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to reach USDA forecasts eased again, slipping to 10.2 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.73 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.99. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.73 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4.   

December wheat closed down 5 1/2-cents at 5.85 3/4. 

December wheat closed lower on Thursday. Wheat export sales tallied 11.7 million bushels in old crop sales last week – down slightly from trade estimates of 12.9 million bushels as well as the prior week’s total of 14.1 million bushels. One month into the 2018/19 marketing year, the weekly rate needed to reach USDA forecasts moved to 16.2 million bushels.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a pause or short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.53 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off July's low, the July-2017 high crossing at 6.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 6.13. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at 6.22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.79 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.53 1/4.       

December Kansas City Wheat closed down 6 1/2-cents at 6.04 1/4. 

December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the July-2017 high crossing at 6.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.62 1/4 would confirms that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6.26. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at 6.42. First support is 10-day moving average crossing at 5.93 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.62 1/4. 

December Minneapolis wheat closed down 1 3/4-cents at 6.47. 

December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.99 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6.56. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.31 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.99 1/4.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans closed down 7-cents at 9.03 1/2. 

November soybeans closed lower on Thursday. Soybean export sales came in at 15.5 million bushels for old crop sales and another 19.6 million bushels of new crop sales, for a total of 35.1 million bushels. That was ahead of both trade estimates (25.7 million) and the prior week’s tally (23.4 million). For the 2017/18 marketing year, soybeans have come in at 16.6 million bushels per week above USDA forecasts. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November resumes the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.42 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.81. Second support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.

December soybean meal closed down $2.60 at 334.80. 

December soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 348.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 330.40 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 348.60. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 356.90. First support is July's low crossing at 321.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 318.40. 

December soybean oil closed down 6-points. At 28.85. 

December soybean oil closed lower on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.59 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 28.39 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 29.39. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.59. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 28.39. Second support is July's low crossing at 27.95. 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

October hogs closed up $3.00 at $51.40. 

October hogs closed limit up on Thursday as it consolidated some of this summer's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 46.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.61 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.61. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 55.98. First support is today's low crossing at 47.82. Second support is weekly support crossing at 46.24.  

October cattle closed down $1.95 at 109.05. 

October cattle close lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 108.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline high crossing at 113.33 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 112.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 108.18. Second support is July's low crossing at 105.48.  

October Feeder cattle closed down $0.78 at $149.20. 

October Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off July's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 152.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 153.45. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 155.38. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 145.42.    

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 11.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 10.56 is the next downside target.      

September cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this summer's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 19.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

October sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. 

October cotton closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends decline off July's high, the reaction low crossing at 86.90 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 92.48 is the next upside target.