For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning:
Storage is LOW for this time of year!! This is why the temperature forecast matters.
Storage is just below the bottom of the previous 5 year range and also almost 700 bcf below last year at this time!
These were the temperatures for the 7 day period for that last EIA report.......hot in the West to TX..........much cooler than the previous week, especially Midwest..... so a bigger injection was expected.
With 3 bullish(low) injections in a row and low storage, expectations and reactions to this coming Thursday's EIA number will be a huge factor for trading this week.
One way to estimate that number is to look at temperatures that occurred during the 7 day period covered for this next report and compare them to the temps from the last report(above) which featured a +35 bcf injection. Here they are:
+46 BCF! -Neutral
From NGI: EIA Reports Near-Target 46 Bcf Injection; September Natural Gas Trades Sideways
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (08/03/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 08/03/18 | 07/27/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 575 | 552 | 23 | 23 | 670 | -14.2 | 672 | -14.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 579 | 552 | 27 | 27 | 769 | -24.7 | 732 | -20.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 148 | 146 | 2 | 2 | 202 | -26.7 | 180 | -17.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 245 | 250 | -5 | -5 | 290 | -15.5 | 316 | -22.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 807 | 808 | -1 | -1 | 1,095 | -26.3 | 1,026 | -21.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 200 | 203 | -3 | -3 | 291 | -31.3 | 275 | -27.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 607 | 604 | 3 | 3 | 804 | -24.5 | 751 | -19.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,354 | 2,308 | 46 | 46 | 3,025 | -22.2 | 2,926 | -19.5 | |||||||||||||||||
Natural gas breaking out to the upside. Got some tough resistance ahead but storage data is bullish(expectations for big increases in supplies coming soon are bearish):
| Natural gas 3 months |
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
| Naturalgas10years below
|
Seasonals based on historical prices.
Release Date: August 7, 2018 | Next Release Date: September 11, 2018 |
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
Natural Gas
Thursday closing comments from Natural Gas Intelligence:
Late Rally Pushes September Natural Gas Back in Black for Sixth Straight Day; Spot Gas Mixed
5:28 PM
With help from some late-session buying, September natural gas rallied for a sixth straight day against a backdrop of an on-target storage injection and weather forecasts calling for cooler temperatures beginning late next week. The Nymex September traded sideways throughout the day before going on to settle at $2.955, up six-tenths of a cent.