gold and silver often go down from about the 20-28 of jan.
then a bounce from the last couple days of jan, into early feb.
of coruse i have been wrong before.
and the metals have not closely followed the seasonal averages much as of late.
Agreed, the seasonals are toast. The algos are frontrunning seasonal and love to jump on any momo.
There is no shortage of Au or Ag in the world judging by the number of ads on TV. Mining continues with ample output and hedge ops. Leasing and storage are profitable. The catalyst for higher prices could be a currency crisis or some fiat/pm peg scheme. Meanwhile India and China folks are jonesing for protection from their own govt'z.
There is such a tiny sample size, I'm not sure how anyone could have a lot of confidence in seasonal trading. I guess if you have another strategy to confirm seasonality like some sort of technical confirmation, but outside of that it seems like a very dangerous game.