KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, January 17, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 360.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.6%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 231.1)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1130.4)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -0.5%)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +2.0%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.8%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.4%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.4%)
9:15 AM ET. December Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.2%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 77.3%; previous 77.1%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.1)
10:00 AM ET. January NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (expected 72; previous 74)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
4:00 PM ET. November Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. Loretta Mester lecture on monetary policy communications
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -11.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.3M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.7M)
Refinery Runs
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 index extends this winter's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6585.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6845.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6694.93. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6585.14.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2720.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2807.70. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2756.02. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2720.79.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 145-26 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 151-01. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-15. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 149-03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 145-26.
March T-notes were lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-days. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.153 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 122.145 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.069. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.153. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 122.200. Second support is weekly support crossing at 122.145.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: FebruaryNymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.21. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.95.
February heating oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates below the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 196.77.
February unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-trading sessions. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 192.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 176.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 186.02. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 192.35. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 176.29. Second support is December's low crossing at 166.19.
February Henry natural gas was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.331 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.886 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.225. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.331. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.886. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.746.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.34. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.92. First support is the overnight low crossing at 89.96. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 125.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.42 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 123.68. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 125.34. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.42. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.28.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4057 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3555 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.3863. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4057. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3555. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3432.
The March Swiss Franc were lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidateds some of the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0588 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0227 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0494. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0588. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0324. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0227.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and could lead to additional weakness near-term. First resistance is January's high crossing at 81.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.54. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.85.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8926 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.9104. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.8968. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8926.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, September's high crossing at 1365.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1304.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1349.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1365.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1324.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1304.80.
March silver was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.862 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.325. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.862. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140.
March copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.52 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.52. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 311.10.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.54 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.54 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.
March wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.37 are needed to confirm that an important low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.37. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.43. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 4 1/4-cents at 4.22.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends last Friday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.29 confirms that a short-term top. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 4.43. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.17 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 6.05 is the next downside target. Closes above January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is December's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last Friday's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, August's low crossing at 9.37 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.67 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.85. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 9.44 1/2. Second support is August's low crossing at 9.37 1/2.
March soybean meal was steady overnight as it extends the rally off last Friday's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.00 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the August-December-rally crossing at 305.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 331.20. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 310.30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-December-rally crossing at 305.70.
March soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 32.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.88 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.27. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.88. First support is December's low crossing at 32.52. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 32.44.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $2.33 at $71.58.
February hogs closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it renewed the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 76.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 74.25. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 76.91. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.76. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.89.
February cattle closed up $0.73 at 118.10.
February cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.88 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.88. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.50. First support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 112.35.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.28 at $143.92.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 147.50 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 138.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 147.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 140.12. Second support is December's low crossing at 138.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.59 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.93 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 17.91 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed sharply lower on Tuesday and below December's low as it extended this month's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, June's low crossing at 13.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cotton closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.31 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target.