KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, January 17, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 360.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.6%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 231.1)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1130.4)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -0.5%)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +2.0%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.8%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.4%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.4%)
9:15 AM ET. December Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.2%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 77.3%; previous 77.1%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.1)
10:00 AM ET. January NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (expected 72; previous 74)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
4:00 PM ET. November Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. Loretta Mester lecture on monetary policy communications
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -11.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.3M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.7M)
Refinery Runs
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 posted a downside reversal due to profit taking on Tuesday but not before posting a record high in early-session trading. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6569.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 6845.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6666.02. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6569.90.
The March S&P 500 posted a downside reversal on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this winter's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2714.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2807.70. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2745.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2714.84.
The Dow gapped up on the open and spiked above 26,000 before profit taking sent stocks into negative territory. Investors weighed political developments against quarterly earnings reports and economic data, which are underpinning Wall Street’s optimism. Never-the-less, the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,040.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 26,086.12. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 25,326.95. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,040.50.
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March T-bonds closed up 9/32's at 150-25.
March T-bonds closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 145-26 is the next downside target.First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 153-03. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 154-18. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 149-03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 145-26.
March T-notes closed down 5/32's at 122-300.
March T-notes closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.179 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 122.145 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.179. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.053. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 122.200. Second support is weekly support crossing at 122.145.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates around the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.21 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 64.89. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.21. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.64.
February heating oil posted a key reversal down on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.60. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.69. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 196.38.
February unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range for the past four-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 192.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 177.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 186.02. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 192.35. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177.69. Second support is December's low crossing at 166.19.
February Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 3.320 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.860 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.320. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3.446. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.746. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.562.
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The March Dollar closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.05. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 92.83. First support is Monday's low crossing at 90.05. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at 125.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 123.43. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 125.34. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.19.
The March British Pound closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4057 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3535 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.3848. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4057. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3535. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3418.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 1.0494 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0221 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0483. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 1.0494. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0221. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0159.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.49 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 81.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.49. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.81.
The March Japanese Yen closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9142 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8922 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.9100. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9142. First support is December's low crossing at 0.8840. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782.
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February gold closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher price are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1349.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1300.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1345.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1349.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1323.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1300.90.
March silver closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 17.686 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.807 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.325. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 17.686. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.807. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140.
March copper closed slightly lower on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 323.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-13 high crossing at 334.05. First support is today's low crossing at 318.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.42.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed up 2 1/4-cents at 3.48 1/2.
March corn posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2 would renew the decline off last year's high while opening the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 3.32. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.54 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.54 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.
March wheat closed down 4 1/4-cents at 4.16 1/4.
March wheat closed lower on Tuesday following last Friday's bearish supply-demand report.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last Friday's high, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.37. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.60 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 4 1/4-cents at 4.22.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends last Friday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.29 confirms that a short-term top. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 4.43. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.17 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 1 1/4-cents at 6.11 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday as it extended last Friday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 6.05 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 6.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is December's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
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March soybeans closed up 6 1/4-cents at 9.66 3/4.
March soybeans closed higher on Tuesday following as it extended last Friday's key reversal up following last Friday's friendly USDA supply-demand report. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, August low crossing at 9.37 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.77. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.85 3/4. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 9.44 1/2. Second support is August's low crossing at 9.37 1/2.
March soybean meal closed up $5.30 at 322.30.
March soybean meal closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.00 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the August-December-rally crossing at 305.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 331.20. First support is the 75% retracement level of the August-December-rally crossing at 312.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-December-rally crossing at 305.70.
March soybean oil closed down 37 pts. At 32.76.
March soybean oil closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 32.52 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.94. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 34.89. First support is December's low crossing at 32.52. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 32.44.
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February hogs closed up $2.33 at $71.58.
February hogs closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it renewed the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 76.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 74.25. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 76.91. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.76. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.89.
February cattle closed up $0.73 at 118.10.
February cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.88 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.88. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.50. First support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 112.35.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.28 at $143.92.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 147.50 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 138.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 147.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 140.12. Second support is December's low crossing at 138.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.59 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.93 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 17.91 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed sharply lower on Tuesday and below December's low as it extended this month's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, June's low crossing at 13.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cotton closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.31 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target.