KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, January 12, 2018
8:30 AM ET. December CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.4%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +3.9%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.2%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.7%)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.8%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +1.0%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.4%; previous -0.1%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Monday, January 15, 2018
N/A U.S: Martin Luther King Day. Financial markets closed
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into record territory. The stock market is poised to extend this year's rally to fresh record highs today after a breakthrough in German politics sent the dollar slumping and boosted appetites for assets perceived as riskier, such as stocks. Investors are also waiting on major economic data. Retail sales and consumer prices as well as earnings from big banks JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 index extends this winter's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6550.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 6744.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6626.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6550.86.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into record high territory. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2708.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2775.90. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2733.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2708.07.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 145-26 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 151-10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-25. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 149-03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 145-26.
March T-notes were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.204 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 122.205 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.131. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.204. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 122.225. Second support is weekly support crossing at 122.205.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: FebruaryNymex crude oil was slightly lowqer overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally below resistance marked by the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.21 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.21. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.26.
February heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it challenges resistance marked by the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.88 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.88. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.95.
February unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 175.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 192.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 186.02. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 192.35. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 175.79. Second support is December's low crossing at 166.19.
February Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.225 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.834 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.108. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.225. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.834. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.562.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar plunged to new lows overnight as it renewed the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, September's low crossing at 90.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.37. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 91.07. Second support is September's low crossing at 90.68.
The March Euro was higher overnight and has renewed the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, September's high crossing at 122.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 121.83. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 122.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.95. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.05.
The March British Pound was sharply higher overnight as it renewed the rally off Novemer's low and is testing resistance marked by September's high crossing at 1.3666. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 1.3758 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3512 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3666. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 1.3758. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3512. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3406.
The March Swiss Franc were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0212 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0365. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0212. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.0103.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and could lead to additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41 is the next upside target.First resistance is January's high crossing at 81.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.75.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March this week's rally, November's high crossing at 0.9073 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8916 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.9073. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141. First support is December's low crossing at 0.8840. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold soared to new highs overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 1342.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1296.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1334.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1342.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1319.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1296.40.
March silver was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.737 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.325. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.737. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140.
March copper was slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 322.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 322.44. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.30.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight ahead of today's monthly supply-demand report. Pre-report estimates have yield unchanged from Dec 175.4, and US ending stocks down 2.431 bbu vs 2.437 bbu in December. Quarterly US stocks are estimated at 12.431 bbu. On report day
2017, Mar corn settled .01 higher, with yield .7 bpa lower; 2016 March corn was up .05, with yield .9 bpa lower and in 2015 it was up .01 3/4, with yield 2.4 bpa lower. On the September 17 report the yield was 169.9 bpa with production estimated at 14.2 bbu. Today's report estimates pegs this year's yield up 5.5 bpa (175.4) from September's report with production up 558 mbu. From Sep 13th to today the front month contract is down .15. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.54 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off last week's high, December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.54 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.
March wheat was steady to slightly higher overnight in quiet pre-report trading as traders await today's USDA supply-demand report for near-term direction. Average of analyst estimates have winter wheat seedings at 31.107 million acres. Smallest area of planted acres on record is 29.196 back in 1909. Ending stocks at 959 mbu and quarterly stocks at 1.849 bbu. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.37 are needed to confirm that an important low has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.27 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.37. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.43. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down a 1/4-cent at 4.40 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Thursday as it consolidates above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.32. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.28 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 4.41 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.28 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.21 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 6.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 6.34. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is December's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was steady overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The average of analyst estimates have yield unchanged from Dec 49.5, US ending stocks higher at 472 mbu from 445 mbu. December and quarterly stocks at 3.181 bbu. Exporters announced a sale of 132,000 mt of beans on Thursday. On report day 2017, March soybeans settled 28 3/4-cents higher, with yield down .4 bpa; 2016 March soybeans were up 13 1/4-cents with ending stocks down 25 mbu; and in 2015 soybeans were down 36 1/4-cents with yield down .3 bpa. However, carryout was unchanged. On the September 2017 report the yield was 49.9 bpa with production estimated at 4,431 bbu. Estimates for today's report lowere yield down .4 bpa from September with production down 4 mbu. From Sep 13th to Thursday the front month contract is down .02. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, August's low crossing at 9.37 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.64 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.64 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.86 1/4. First support is the late-August low crossing at 9.50. Second support is August's low crossing at 9.37 1/2.
March soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the August-December-rally crossing at 305.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 323.80 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 318.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 323.80. First support is the overnight low crossing at 312.10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-December-rally crossing at 305.70.
March soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 32.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.98 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.98. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 34.54. First support is December's low crossing at 32.52. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 32.44.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $1.55 at $70.98.
February hogs closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 76.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 73.68. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 76.91. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.89.
February cattle closed up $0.20 at 117.08.
February cattle closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.04 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.04. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.98. First support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 112.35.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.85 at $141.38.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 138.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.03 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.03. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 140.12. Second support is December's low crossing at 138.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.41 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 13.30 is the next upside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 20.00 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 17.91 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.66 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 13.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.95 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cotton closed limit up on Thursday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 84.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.63 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted.