INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 8, 2018, 7:42 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, January 8, 2018  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Employment Trends Index

 



 

 

                       ETI (previous 135.88)

 



 

 

                       ETI, Y/Y% (previous +4.7%)

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. November Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +20.52B)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into record territory. Investors are drawing confidence from overseas gains and an already solid start to the year for global equities. Traders are also processing weekend comments from Federal Reserve officials, who spoke of the potential for more interest rates in 2018 on an strengthening U.S. economy. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 index extends this winter's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 6383.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 6681.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6489.39. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6383.98.  



The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this winter's rally into record territory. Stocks are poised for another record-setting session today as the global stock rally is showing no signs of tapering off soon. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2688.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2746.20. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2688.33. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2633.55.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 150-14 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 154-18 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 153-04. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 154-18. First support is December's low crossing at 150-14. Second support is October's low crossing at 149-07.  



March T-notes were higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 122.205 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.290 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.290. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.101. First support is December's low crossing at 123.125. Second support is weekly support crossing at 122.205. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: FebruaryNymex crude oil was slightly higher overnight and is poised to extend this winter's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 62.21. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.54. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.04.



February heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates below the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 204.95. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.05.      



February unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the May-2015 high crossing at 186.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 174.68 would confirm that a double top with November's high has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 181.53. Second resistance is the May-2015 high crossing at 186.01. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174.68. Second support is December's low crossing at 166.19. 



February Henry natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.782 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If February resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.108 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.108. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.225. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.782. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.562.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 91.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.69. First support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 91.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 90.68.



The March Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, September's high crossing at 122.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 121.40. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 122.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.55. 



The March British Pound was lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be forming. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3477 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 1.3666 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1.3646. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3666. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3477. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3379.  



The March Swiss Franc were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0200 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0365. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0200. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.0103.     



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, September's high crossing at 82.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 81.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 82.71. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.73. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.88.



The March Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 0.8782 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off the December 21st reaction low, December's high cross at .8981 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 0.8981. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9072. First support is December's low crossing at 0.8840. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold were steady to slightly higher overnight as it above the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1317.10. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1334.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1282.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1334.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1349.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1305.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1282.00.



March silver was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.504 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.325. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.982. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.504. 



March copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 318.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 318.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 313.64. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last week's high, December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.54 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.54. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32. 



March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.23 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.33 are needed to confirm that an important low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.33. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.43. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.    



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 2 1/4-cents at 4.37 1/2. 



March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low but remain above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.32 1/2. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.23 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4.41 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.  



March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Thursday's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.28 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.28 1/2. Second resistance is December's high resistance crossing at 6.34. First support is December's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.72 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the late-August low crossing at 9.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.72 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.89 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 9.54 3/4. Second support is the late-August low crossing at 9.50.



March soybean meal was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.00 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 315.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 331.20. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 315.50. Second support is November's low crossing at 315.00.



March soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.40 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.13. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 34.54. First support is December's low crossing at 32.52. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 32.44. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $0.05 at $71.43. 



February hogs closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 73.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 72.45. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 73.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.28. Second support is December's low crossing at 66.25. 



February cattle closed down $3.00 at 119.25. 



February cattle closed limit down on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 117.58. If February renews the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.68. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.78. First support is December's low crossing at 117.58. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06.

 

March Feeder cattle closed down $3.58 at $141.98. 



March Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Friday following yesterday's key reversal down. Today's close below the 10-day moving average crossing at 142.18 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 138.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.92 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.92. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. First support is today's low crossing at 141.15. Second support is December's low crossing at 138.30.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 13.30 is the next upside target. 



March cocoa closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 17.91 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 20.16 is the next upside target. 



March sugar closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 15.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.



March cotton posted a key reversal down on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.38 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 80.67 is the next upside target. 

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