INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 29, 2017, 7:46 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, December 29, 2017  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1560.6K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1762.9K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 833.2K)

 



 

 

Tuesday, January 2, 2018  

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. December US Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 53.9)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. December Global Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 54)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. U.S. stocks are set to end 2017 in an upbeat note, with futures rising across the board and setting the Dow and S&P 500 index on track for fresh record highs.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6420.88 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the NASDAQ 100 index resumes this year's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 6545.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6420.88. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6338.79.



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight and poised to renew this year's rally into record territory. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2668.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 2697.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2668.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2618.37.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were mostly steady overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off last Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 154-18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 152-04 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 153-04. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 154-18. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 150-14. Second support is October's low crossing at 149-07.  



March T-notes were higher in overnight trading and is poised to extend Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.028 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 122.205 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.028. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.129. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 123.125. Second support is weekly support crossing at 122.205. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: FebruaryNymex crude oil was higher overnight as it renewed this month's rally to new highs. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 60.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.65.



February heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 194.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 206.39. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 198.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 194.82.      



February unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the May-2015 high crossing at 186.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 173.16 would confirm that a double top with November's high has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 181.53. Second resistance is the May-2015 high crossing at 186.01. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173.16. Second support is December's low crossing at 166.19. 



February Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.010 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.731 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.010. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.108. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.731. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.562.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight and trading below key support marked by November's low crossing at 92.13 as it extends the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 91.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.99. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.37. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 91.69. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 91.20.



The March Euro was higher overnight and is challenging trading range resistance marked November's high crossing at 120.43. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 120.43 or below November's low crossing at 116.49 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is November's high crossing at 120.43. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.49. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.61. 



The March British Pound was higher overnight and poised to breakout to the topside of this month's trading range.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 1.3666 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3345 are the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3598. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3666. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3345. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.3273.  



The March Swiss Franc were higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 1.0352 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 1.0062 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.0352. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411. First support is December's low crossing at 1.0103. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0062.    



The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, October's high crossing at 80.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 79.90. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 80.42. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.49. Second support is the December's low crossing at 77.52.



The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.8906 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 0.8782 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 0.8977. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9072. First support is December's low crossing at 0.8840. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold were higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 1303.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1269.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1303.40. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1312.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1269.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 1238.30.



March silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 17.270 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.226 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.270. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 17.485. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.226. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.635. 



March copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 322.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 311.18. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top has likely been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 3.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.55 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.55 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32. 



March wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.34 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.34 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.43. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.    



March Kansas City Wheat was up 1 1/4-cents at 4.26 3/4. 



March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.33 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off September's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.33 1/2. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.  



March Minneapolis wheat was steady overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.29 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.29. Second resistance is December's high resistance crossing at 6.34. First support is December's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the late-August low crossing at 9.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.83. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.92 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at 9.54 3/4. Second support is the late-August low crossing at 9.50.



March soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 315.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 327.40 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 327.40. First support is the overnight low crossing at 315.70. Second support is November's low crossing at 315.00.



March soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the June- crossing at 32.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.35 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.35. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.20. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 32.52. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June- crossing at 32.44.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $0.43 at $75.70. 



April hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 75.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.82. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 75.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.35. Second support is December's low crossing at 70.97. 



February cattle closed up $1.25 at 122.25. 



February cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 118.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.67. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.78. First support is December's low crossing at 117.58. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06.

 

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.50 at $142.23. 



March Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.04 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 137.19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.04. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 149.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 138.30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 137.19.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.32 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.66 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 11.34 is the next downside target. 



March cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rebound off Monday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 17.91 is the next downside target. 



March sugar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 15.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.



March cotton closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 80.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.00 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. 

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