INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 26, 2017, 7:19 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, December 26, 2017  

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (previous 30)

 



 

 

                       Retail Revenues Idx

 



 

 

                       Services Rev Idx

 



 

 

                       Shipments Idx (previous 33)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. December Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (previous 19.4)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 15.1)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6410.02 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If the NASDAQ 100 index resumes this year's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 6545.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6410.02. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6319.79.



The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight in quiet post-holiday trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2660.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 2697.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2660.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2610.52.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 149-07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 152-21 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 154-18. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 154-21. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 150-14. Second support is October's low crossing at 149-07.  



March T-notes were slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 122.205 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.050 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 124.210. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 125.000. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 123.125. Second support is weekly support crossing at 122.205. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: FebruaryNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past two months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 58.99 is the next upside target. Closes below November's low crossing at 55.15 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is November's high crossing at 58.99. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 60.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.18. Second support is November's low crossing at 55.15.



February heating oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally while at the same time extending the trading range of the past two months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51 is the next upside target. Closes below December's low crossing at 186.15 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is December's high crossing at 198.08. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.99. Second support is December's low crossing at 186.15.      



February unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 179.79 is the next upside target. If February resumes the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 160.82 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 179.79. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 181.02. First support is December's low crossing at 166.19. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 160.82. 



February Henry natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.827 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.522 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 2.789. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.827. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 2.562. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.522.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the reaction low crossing at 92.69 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 94.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 94.22. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 94.76. First support is the reaction low crossing at 92.69. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 92.26.



The March Euro was slightly lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past two-months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 120.43 or below November's low crossing at 116.49 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is November's high crossing at 120.43. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.49. First support is December's low crossing at 117.97. Second support is November's low crossing at 116.49. 



The March British Pound was slightly lower overnight while extending this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3331 are the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 1.3666 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3598. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3666. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3331. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.3273.  



The March Swiss Franc were lower overnight while at the same time extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 1.0352 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 1.0062 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.0352. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411. First support is December's low crossing at 1.0103. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0062.    



The March Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 79.31 is the next upside target. Closes above December's high crossing at 79.31 or below December's low crossing at 77.52 are needed to confirm a breakout of the trading range of the past two-months and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is December's high crossing at 79.31. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 80.42. First support is the late-November's low crossing at 77.58. Second support is December's low crossing at 77.52.



The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 0.8782 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.8919 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9072. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141. First support is December's low crossing at 0.8840. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold were higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1278.30 would open the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 1303.40. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1264.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1278.30. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1303.40. First support is December's low crossing at 1238.30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 1233.90.  



March silver was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.744 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.160 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.744. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 17.485. First support is December's low crossing at 15.635. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 15.626.     



March copper was higher overnight and has taken out resistance marked by October's high crossing at 327.95 as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 330.00. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 315.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.07. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



Grains will begin trading when the day session begins later this morning. Here is a recap of last Friday's trade.



March Corn closed up 1-cent at 3.52 1/4. 



March corn closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.51. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.56 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 3.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.56 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32. 



March wheat closed down 2-cents at 4.25. 



March wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.37. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.60 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.    



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 2-cents at 4.22 1/4. 



March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.35 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off September's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.35 1/4. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.  



March Minneapolis wheat closed down 5-cents at 6.12. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.29 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.29 1/2. Second resistance is December's high resistance crossing at 6.34. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans closed up 1 1/2-cents at 9.50 1/4. 



January soybeans closed up on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month's decline, the late-August low crossing at 9.40 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.80. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 10.15. First support is September's low crossing at 9.47 1/2. Second support is the late-August low crossing at 9.40 3/4.



January soybean meal closed down $1.30 at 312.90. 



January soybean meal closed lower on Friday as it the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at 311.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 326.40 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 326.40. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 348.20. First support is today's low crossing at 312.70. Second support is November's low crossing at 311.60.



January soybean oil closed up 4 pts. At 32.71. 



January soybean oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 32.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.38. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.06. First support is October's low crossing at 32.47. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 32.05.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $0.20 at $68.58. 



February hogs closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 65.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.16. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 72.25. First support is November's low crossing at 66.25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 65.43. 



February cattle closed up $0.73 at 119.68. 



February cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the decline off November's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.15. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.78. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 117.58. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06.

 

January Feeder cattle closed up $1.15 at $142.93. 



January Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 138.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.37 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.37. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.34. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 140.97. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 138.56.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.46 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 11.34 is the next downside target. 



March cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.58 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, April's low crossing at 18.27 is the next downside target. 



March sugar closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.51 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, June's low crossing at 13.50 is the next downside target. 



March cotton closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 79.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.80 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. 

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