quite a tug of war between the longs and the shorts in oil. We did sell off hard, going down over $2,00 but we have stabilized and have recovered half the loss. I see some very strong forces going both ways. COT report is very bearish but the technical charts looks very bullish. We could easily run up to $72 and then have a good size correction. Not sure at this point.

All the liquid energies look like they have broken out. CL and HO decisively, RB just barely.

NG is also on the verge of an upside breakout. 

Oh, I agree that oil has broken out technically, but looking at the COT report, the 4 AND 8 largest traders are BOTH much more short then long and that is true for both future only AND futures and options. I have 20years of data on a few different commodities and when this number hits an extreme, in all but a couple of cases, it has been a top (at least a short term top until the situation corrects) and when they are much more long then short, it has been a bottom. In the cases were THEY were wrong, the price has surged fast and furious as they cover. So we are headed to $80 plus plus or we are very close to a (Short term) top. Now it could be that we go up some more, since the BIG players do not care about daily movement. ie a move to $72?? Isn't going to scare them and then we could have a bigger correction. Another way would be for us to move sideways for a couple months while they slowly correct there position, but to ignore this data is ridiculous.

This is a test. I'm having major trouble in trying to post in Marketforum. I tried to start a new NG thread and nothing showed up.

Having the same problem Larry. 

Typing up a long winded post and it vanishes. One thing that can be done is to copy it before sending, then if it vanishes, you can paste it back and usually the 2nd attempt to submit will be successful.

Pretty silly that its been like this all year. 

Would be very interested in reading your views on natural gas right now Larry.

sideways would suit me fine. I have a 60-74 strangle on june crude

Good job on the call spread. Vol must be coming in with this price action.

thank you, yes. short june 74 call, short 60 june put. as long as it stays in there I'm happy

Clearly there are some very powerful forces at work in Oil and they seem to be opposing each other. Spreads are widening, which is extremely bullish, but the COT reports are still a concern and did not improve at all this week. After analyzing the data I no longer think a move to $55 is possible. I did not have money to go long oil when I wanted to, but I do now and want to go long at the right spot. Watching crude oil all day is actually interesting and which is the next $2 move, up or down? The COT of Gold is getting close to a buy. Not there yet. I wonder what Trump is thinking with the Middle East. Such a wild card.

I don't think Trump will be able to negotiate this one. Play it like you see it.

Richard,

The very strong historical seasonal strength for oil fizzles out here but that surely has not been the main driver, just one enhancing the move higher. 

CL well above its break out point but we wouldn't want it to start trading back below $66 for very long.

Heating oil too is above its upside break out point and needs to stay above $207.50.

Gasoline (basis June) however, is just below its Feb top at the moment(trading 2.0843 last tick) and continued weakness that is not followed by prices above this, make a case for at least a short term top that might last awhile. 

Since these 3 liquid energies trade in tandem, even though crude has been strongest, followed by heating oil, then gasoline. If the first 2 stay strong, the weaker one will follow back up. 

If the weaker one shows a double top with the Feb high, the other 2 will, at the very least come back to test their break out highs and possibly get below them. 

Their price action is directly related to the storage/supplies.

Crude has been drawn down the most since last year(from the greatest supplies ever to the biggest 1 year drop in supply). Heating oil supplies have had a moderate drop(some of it from sustained cold in the Northeast this year, where they use heating oil. 

Unleaded gas supplies have only changed slightly. 

I no longer think we will get a correction. I am thinking or hoping that today's low was the low of the pullback. We can go down some tomorrow but totally agree that we need to stay above $66. I think it will.

Well when I posted this, oil was just above $69 and we did get below $67, so we did decline but not as much as I thought. Anyway, the correction is officially over and up, up away we go. Happy trading.

Well when I posted this, oil was just above $69 and we did get below $67, so we did decline but not as much as I thought. Anyway, the correction is officially over and up, up away we go. Happy trading.

OPENING UP U.S. FOR "EXPORTING" OIL WAS SURE A POSITIVE MOVE FOR PRICES...

... $100 OIL WOULD BE A HEALTHY SIGN FOR THE ECONOMY IMHO...

when I said  . . .Anyway, the correction is officially over and up, up away we go. . . . 

.

Look at what Crude has done the past two days and this is what I meant. Long and lovin it . . .Finally. .

Congrats Richard. Oil to $1,000/barrel?

Glad you stuck around here a bit longer to get your credit on the forum too!!

Prices plunged because Trump is going to make his announcement on Iran tomorrow..Tuesday.  If he re-imposes sanctions, $80 is the next stop.  

Prices started selling of at 2:29 and the tweet was at 2:44pm.  When is the insider trading with Goldman Sachs going to stop? I am very worried about my long position. The only reason I can figure out that they are announcing tomorrow instead of Saturday is because there is a short who does not want all this uncertainty in the market this entire week and has Trump announcing tomorrow. My guess is that he will not sign the deal but no new sanctions, But what do I know. At this point, I am just guessing and figuring where in the world to put a stop so I can close my eyes. It will be below $69.00. How much below I have no idea nor would I post.

when I am long and happy about the money I made, that is always a short term top. I need to learn to fade myself.

Richard,

Was wondering how the huge spike lower effected you earlier on Tuesday?

Monday night I understood the risk and sold 1/2 my position and let the other half ride without a stop. I put an order in to buy back the other half after we made the low of the day, but the market rallied and never looked back so now I am only long half what I wanted but half is not so bad.

Thanks Richard,

There is never an ideal plan that applies best in every situation. 

In a very long term bull, obviously staying long is the objective. For 15 years, I traded with no stops, taking only trades where a powerful weather pattern over rode everything else.

Todays markets are much more volatile then before.  Tight stops get hit more often than not and even giving the market some room with stops isn't enough........note yesteday in crude or beans recently when news about the trade war with China hit.

Sometimes, being positive about where the market is going and not having a stop is the worst thing.......because the more confident that you are, the more you are willing to risk. Then if you are wrong(which happens) your most confident trade ends up losing the most money.

Sounds smart to take 1/2 off yesterday and it you had got filled buying it back lower, you'd feel like a genius.

Now, if we keep going higher and you only have 1/2, you are kicking yourself............been there hundreds of times and recently, get so frustrated with the market taking off like I projected(and maybe stopped out earlier with a loss) go chasing it............risking MUCH more and getting stopped out again with a loss before the move resumes again without me.

We MUST be disciplined and stick to predetermined entry/exit points that don't change without good reason. I will post my trading rules here shortly.