INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - April 24, 2018, 8 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, April 24, 2018  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.8%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.0%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.0%)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. February S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (expected +6.3%; previous +6.4%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. February U.S. Monthly House Price Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March New Residential Sales

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales (expected 628K; previous 618K)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +1.6%; previous -0.6%)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.9)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Consumer Confidence Index

 



 

 

                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 126.0; previous 127.7)

 



 

 

                       Expectation Idx (previous 106.2)

 



 

 

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 159.9)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (previous 15)

 



 

 

                       Retail Revenues Idx

 



 

 

                       Services Rev Idx

 



 

 

                       Shipments Idx (previous 15)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.0M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.5M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last Wednesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6618.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 6951.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6951.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 7214.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6618.65. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6408.50.    



The June S&P 500 was higher overnight signaling a possible end to a three-day correction off last Wednesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2650.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 2741.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2741.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2806.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2650.83. Second support is April's low crossing at 2554.00.     



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, February's low crossing at 141-14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 146-02. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 147-03. First support is Monday's low crossing at 142-09. Second support is February's low crossing at 141-14.



June T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high but remains below broken support marked by February's low crossing at 119.140. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, monthly support crossing at 117.180 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.158 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.158. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 121.120. First support is Monday's low crossing at 119.065. Second support is monthly support crossing at 117.180.  



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: JuneNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 69.55. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 67.69. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.77.  



June heating oil was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the February-2015-high crossing at 216.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 214.32. Second resistance is the February-2015-high crossing at 216.33. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 209.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.65. 



June unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 217.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 213.87. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 217.77. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 208.03. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.85. 



June Henry natural gas was lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 2.873 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off last Wednesday's high, April's low crossing at 2.660 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 2.818. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.873. First support is April's low crossing at 2.660. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.638.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends Monday's breakout above the upper boundary of this year's trading range crossing at 90.49. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018 decline crossing at 91.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 89.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 91.20. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 92.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 89.48. Second support is April's low crossing at 88.94.



The June Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it challenges the lower boundary of the trading of the past three-months crossing at 122.54. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 121.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 124.68. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 125.53. First support is the overnight low crossing at 122.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 121.97. 



The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 1.3945 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4182 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 1.4413. Second high is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4617. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.3945. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.3843.  



The June Swiss Franc were steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0241 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0448 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0382. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0448. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0257. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0241.



The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 77.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.06 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is April's high crossing at 79.92. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 80.46. First support is the reaction low crossing at 77.35. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.33.  



The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9148 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9379 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9379. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.9615. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.9214. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9148.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1343.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1359.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1369.40. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1326.70. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50.



May silver was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.572 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 17.572 is the next upside target. First resistance is the the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 17.572. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.785. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.572. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.430. 



May copper was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 329.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 319.55. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 329.05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.83. Second support is April's low crossing at 297.00. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 3.80 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.92 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 4.01. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 4.02 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.85 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 3.92. 



July wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 4.59 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 4.91 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 4.91. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 5.10 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.70 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.59.     



July Kansas City Wheat closed up 3/4-cents at 5.02 3/4. 



July Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 4.75 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 5.28 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 5.48 1/2. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.94 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.75 1/2. 



July Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, March's high crossing at 6.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 6.27 1/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 6.43 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.94 3/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 5.81.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans were lower overnight as they extend decline off April's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 10.14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.50 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 10.78. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.90 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 10.29. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 10.14. 



July soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 367.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 382.60 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 397.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 400.60. First support is April's low crossing at 367.00. Second support is March's low crossing at 360.90.



July soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off November's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.08. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 33.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at 31.15. Second support is the January-2016-low crossing at 30.67.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed down $1.18 at $76.38. 



June hogs closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high, crossing at 79.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.60. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 81.33. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.62. Second support is April's low crossing at 70.25. 



June cattle closed up $1.15 at 104.87. 



June cattle closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 106.93 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 106.93. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 109.93. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.

 

May Feeder cattle closed up $1.28 at $140.60. 



May Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 142.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 142.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 142.53. First support is the reaction low crossing at 134.33. Second support is April's low crossing at 128.88.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.93 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.25 is the next downside target.      



May cocoa closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 29.07 is the next upside target.  



May sugar closed sharply lower on Monday as it extended this year's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.10 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. 



May cotton closed sharply lower on Monday after marking a potential double top with March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with today's decline signaling that a double top with March's high might have been posted with today's high. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.87 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 86.60 is the next upside target.  

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