KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, April 19, 2018
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 226K; previous 233K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -9K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1871000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +53K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 895.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2464.5K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 188.7K)
8:30 AM ET. April Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 20.8; previous 22.3)
Prices Paid (previous 42.6)
Employment (previous 25.6)
New Orders (previous 35.7)
Prices Received (previous 20.7)
Delivery Times (previous 14.0)
Inventories (previous 16.5)
Shipments (previous 32.4)
8:30 AM ET. Annual Advance GDP by Industry
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. March Leading Indicators
Leading Index (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)
Coincident Index (previous +0.3%)
Lagging Index (previous +0.4%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1335B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -19B)
3:30 PM ET. G24 Ministers and Governors Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, April 20, 2018
10:00 AM ET. March Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
8:30 AM ET. March CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.88)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.37)
9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.1)
9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.7)
10:00 AM ET. March Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.54M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +3.0%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.4)
Median Price (USD) (previous 241700)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +5.9%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low. The Stock indexes posted broad declines as investors digested a fresh round of corporate earnings. While results have largely come in ahead of expectations thus far this reporting season, there have been some disappointments and others haven’t produced the kind of results necessary to continue pushing stocks higher from April's low.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 6951.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6616.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6951.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 7214.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6616.26. Second support is April's low crossing at 6306.75.
The June S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. Ten of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors were lower on the day. The biggest loser was consumer staples, which declined by 3.5% following weak results from tobacco giant Philip Morris. The staples sector posted its largest one-day decline since February 5th.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 2741.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2644.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2741.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2806.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2644.30. Second support is April's low crossing at 2554.00.
The Dow closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low. Today’s decline pulled the blue-chip average back into negative territory for the year. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 24,977.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,201.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 24,977.65. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 25,449.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,201.13. Second support is April's low crossing at 23,344.52.
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June T-bonds closed down 1-04/32's at 143-25.
June T-bonds closed lower on Thursday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-07 as it extended the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 142-30 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 148-28. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142-30. Second support is March's low crossing at 142-21.
June T-notes closed down 95 pts at 119-270.
June T-notes closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, February's low crossing at 119.140 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.213 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 121.110. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 121.257. First support is March's low crossing at 119.220. Second resistance is February's low crossing at 119.140.
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May crude oil pulled back from their highest levels in nearly 3 1/2 years, as traders weighed comments from major oil producers ahead of a meeting in Saudi Arabia. Today's setback was due to profit taking amid uncertainty about the outcome of the joint ministerial meeting scheduled for Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 69.56. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.27. Second support is April's low crossing at 61.81.
May heating oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it spiked to a new high for the year. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 216.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 212.85. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 216.58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 206.38. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.31.
May unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 210.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 209.28. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 210.12. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 203.76. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.08.
May Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 2.600 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 2.764 are needed to extends the rally off April's low while opening the door for a possible test of March's high crossing at 2.831. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.764. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.831. First support is March's low crossing at 2.610. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.600. Third support is December's low crossing at 2.504.
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The June Dollar closed higher on Thursday while extending this year's trading range.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. From a broader perspective, June needs to close above 90.49 or below 78.83 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trading range. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is March's low crossing at 88.53. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.83.
The June Euro closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 125.54 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 125.54. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is the March 1st low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97.
The June British Pound closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4185 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, April's low crossing at 1.4007 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4617 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4413. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4617. First support is April's low crossing at 1.4007. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.3779.
The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0241 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0500 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0500. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0633. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0331. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0241.
The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.58 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 80.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 79.92. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 80.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.45.
The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9237 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9426 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9426. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.9511. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9327. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9238.
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June gold closed lower on Thursday due to strength in the US Dollar. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1336.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 1375.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1369.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1375.50.First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30.
May silver closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off April's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 17.460 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.574 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.460. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.785. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.574. Second support is April's low crossing at 16.150.
May copper closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 326.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 305.73 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 319.55. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 329.05.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 305.73. Second support is April's low crossing at 297.00.
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May Corn closed down 1 1/2-cents at 3.81 1/2.
May corn closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. So far the trade has showed little if any concern over the lingering winter weather across the upper Midwest and delayed start to spring fieldwork in the eastern corn belt due to wet weather. Given the burdensome corn carryout and ideas that this year's corn crop can still be planted in a timely manner; some believing within a week, traders remain apathetic about extending additional long positions in the market. However, bulls are hoping that ongoing drought conditions in the southwest along with cold/snowing conditions in the upper Midwest may eventually catch the eyes of the market to dial in some additional weather premium into the corn market later this spring. Meanwhile, if May extends the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 374 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.85 would signal that the correction off April's high has come to an end. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 3.92 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 3.79 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 374 1/2.
May wheat closed up 1 1/2-cents at 4.76 3/4.
May wheat closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.65 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of March's low crossing at 4.41 1/2. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.98. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 5.18 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.65 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.41 1/2.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 6 1/2-cents at 4.95 1/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday as forecast for rain across Kansas and Oklahoma have shifted to the southeast missing critical dry portions of the plains. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.01 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 5.28 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 5.48 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.76. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.56.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down 4 3/4-cents at 6.13 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday ending a two-day correction off Monday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 6.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.02 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 6.34. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 6.36. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.02 3/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 5.71.
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May soybeans closed down 4 3/4-cents at 10.37.
May soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off last Friday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.38 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 10.67 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.38 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at 9.83 1/2.
May soybean meal closed down $3.70 at 372.90.
May soybean meal closed lower on Thursday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 375.90 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 369.60 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 404.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 389.70. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 369.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00.
May soybean oil closed up 5 pts. At 31.40.
May soybean oil closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.93 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.93. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.73. First support is Monday's low crossing at 31.14. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67.
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June hogs closed down $0.45 at $78.07.
June hogs closed lower on Thursday but remain above the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.94. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the reaction high, crossing at 79.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.60. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 81.33. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.41. Second support is April's low crossing at 70.25.
June cattle closed down $2.27 at 103.00.
June cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40 is the next downside target. If June extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 106.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 106.93. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.38. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.
May Feeder cattle closed down $2.25 at $138.43.
May Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 142.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 142.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 142.90. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 134.33. Second support is April's low crossing at 128.88.
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May coffee closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.96 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 29.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this year's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.23 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cotton closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 86.60 is the next upside target.