KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, April 10, 2018
6:00 AM ET. March NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 107.6)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.9%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.4%)
8:30 AM ET. March PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.2%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.4%0
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.5%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.4%)
10:00 AM ET. February Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.3M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.2M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was sharply higher overnight as traders took cheer from promises by Chinese President Xi Jinping to open the country’s markets. Xi’s pledges, made at a major conference in Asia, may help to soothe fears of an all-out trade war between the U.S. and China, a factor that has been driving volatility for equities. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6710.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 6192.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 6654.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6710.93. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 6306.75. Second support is February's low crossing at 6192.50.
The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2666.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2666.67. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2703.40. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 2554.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 147-03. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-10.
June T-notes were lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 122.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.204 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 121.120. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.020. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.204. Second support is March's low crossing at 119.220.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: MayNymex crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 63.76 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at 59.91 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 66.55. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 61.81. Second support is March's low crossing at 59.91.
May heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 207.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 194.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 204.85. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 208.95. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 194.76. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 192.90.
May unleaded gas was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 208.89 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 193.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 205.45. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 208.89. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 193.63. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 192.70.
May Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle off March's low.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 2.764 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes last Monday's decline, March's low crossing at 2.610 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.764. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.831. First support is March's low crossing at 2.610. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.600.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 89.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is March's low crossing at 88.53. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.93.
The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 122.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 125.53. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is March's low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 121.97.
The June British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last Thursday's low, March's high crossing at 1.4294 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 1.3945 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1.4294. Second high is January's high crossing at 1.4404. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.3945. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 1.3926.
The June Swiss Franc were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0566 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0344 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0515. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0566. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1.0422. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0344.
The June Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 79.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.67 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.41. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 80.45. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.67.
The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9327 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9462 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9462. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.9615. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9327. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9237.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 1362.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1362.60. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1369.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30.
May silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two and a half months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 16.810 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 16.100 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.810. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 16.895. First support is March's low crossing at 16.100. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
May copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 312.94 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 301.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 312.94. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 319.20. First support is March's low crossing at 293.75. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 281.96 is the next downside target.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as traders await the release of April's monthly supply-demand report later this morning for near-term direction. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.79 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.01 is the next upside target. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.79 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 3.69 1/4.
May wheat lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.61 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.93 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.98. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 4.72 3/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.61 1/2. Third support is March's low crossing at 4.44 1/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 16-cents at 5.22 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat gapped up and closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 5.33 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.82 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.33 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 5.48 1/2. First support is today's gap crossing at 5.06 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.56. Third support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally, March's high crossing at 6.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.29 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 6.36. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 6.08 1/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.94.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last Wednesday's low, last Monday's high crossing at 10.60 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 10.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 10.60 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 9.87 1/4. Second support is February's low crossing at 9.79 1/4.
May soybean meal was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 404.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 363.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 393.30. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 348.30.
May soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off November's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 32.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 32.73. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.96. First support is March's low crossing at 31.35. Second support is the January-2016-low crossing at 30.67.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed up $2.60 at $75.88.
June hogs closed sharply higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.72 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last Wednesdays' low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.87 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 69.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.92. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.87. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 70.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 69.77.
June cattle closed up $0.18 at 102.50.
June cattle closed higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 106.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 106.82. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.46. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.
May Feeder cattle closed down $0.10 at $135.53.
May Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off last Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.78. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144.46. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 130.80. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.09.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.11 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.12 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 27.55 is the next upside target.
May sugar closed slightly higher on Monday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.55 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 12.00 is the next downside target.
May cotton closed slightly higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last Wednesday's low, March's high crossing at 86.60 is the next upside target. If May resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 76.44 is the next downside target.