KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, April 9, 2018
9:30 AM ET. SEC Fixed Income Market Structure Advisory Committee Meeting
10:00 AM ET. March Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 107.74)
ETI, Y/Y% (previous +5.6%)
1100/1500 IMF World Economic Outlook analytical chapters
Tuesday, April 10, 2018
6:00 AM ET. March NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 107.6)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.9%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.4%)
8:30 AM ET. March PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.2%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.4%0
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.5%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.4%)
10:00 AM ET. February Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.3M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.2M)
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The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Friday ending a two-day rebound off Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6769.89 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 6192.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 6654.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6769.89. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 6306.75. Second support is February's low crossing at 6192.50.
The June S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Friday ending a two-day rebound off Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2681.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2681.97. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2712.45. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2554.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51.
The Dow closed sharply lower on Friday as investors digested a weaker-than-expected jobs report, which showed that the U.S. economy adds 103,000 jobs in March. In addition to the weaker-than-expected jobs report, investors are grappled with continued trade war fears following President Donald Trump’s proposal of fresh tariffs against China. Trump announced late Thursday that he was considering tariffs on another $100 billion in Chinese goods, which would triple the amount of imports facing levies. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,408.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 23,101.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,408.71. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,861.97. First support is Monday's low crossing at 23,344.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at 23,101.28.
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June T-bonds closed up 1-03/32's at 146-00.
June T-bonds closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 148-28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114-25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 142-30.
June T-notes closed up 135 pts at 120-315.
June T-notes closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 121.257 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.178 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 121.110. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 121.257. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.178. Second resistance is the reaction low crossing at 119.220.
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May crude oil closed lower on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.58 confirming that a double top with January's high has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at 59.91 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 66.55. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46.First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 62.06. Second support is March's low crossing at 59.91.
May heating oil closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 208.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 207.28. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 208.95. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.03. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 192.90.
May unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 197.39 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 192.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 199.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 205.45. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 208.89. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 192.70. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 189.95.
May Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 2.831 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 2.600 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 2.764. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.831. First support is February's low crossing at 2.600. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.504.
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The June Dollar closed lower on Friday while extending the trading range of the past three-months.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above 90.49 or below 78.83 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is March's low crossing at 88.53. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.83.
The June Euro closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 125.54. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is the March 1st low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97.
The June British Pound closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 1.3945 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.4352 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4352. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4404. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.3945. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.3779.
The June Swiss Franc closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0344 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0577 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0577. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0702. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0422. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0344.
The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.72 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 78.67. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.72. First support is Monday's low crossing at 77.35. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.33.
The June Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high but remains below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9401. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9327 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9467 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9467. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.9615. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9327. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9238.
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June gold closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 1369.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1362.60. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1369.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30.
May silver closed unchanged on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below March's low crossing at 16.100 would confirm a downside breakout of the February-March trading range. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.616 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.616. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.810. First support is March's low crossing at 16.100. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
May copper closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above Thursday's high crossing at 308.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 281.96 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 308.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 313.48.First support is March's low crossing at 293.75. Second support is last September's low crossing at 293.25.
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May Corn closed down 3/4-cents at 3.88 3/4.
May corn closed fractionally lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.78 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.92 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 3.69 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 3.64.
May wheat closed up 7 1/4-cents at 4.72.
May wheat closed higher on Friday and above the March 19th gap crossing at 4.67 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last Thursday's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.98 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.72 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.98. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.41 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.36.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 8 1/4-cents at 5.06 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off last Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the March 19th high crossing at 4.99 1/4 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 5.33 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.74 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.06 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.33 1/4. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed up 17 1/2-cents at 6.07 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed sharply higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.99 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.11 would open the door for a possible test of March's high crossing at 6.36. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 5.59 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.11. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.29 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.71. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 5.59 1/4.
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May soybeans closed up 3 1/2-cents at 10.34 3/4.
May soybeans closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 10.60 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 9.72 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 10.60 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 9.87 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 9.72.
May soybean meal closed up $2.90 at 386.50.
May soybean meal closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 404.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 368.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 389.70. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 348.30.
May soybean oil closed down 21 pts. At 31.57.
May soybean oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 32.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.96. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September 2017/ March 2018 decline crossing at 33.33. First support is March's low crossing at 31.58. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67.
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June hogs closed down $0.55 at $73.28.
June hogs closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 69.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.81. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.02. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 70.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 69.77.
June cattle closed down $2.73 at 102.32.
June cattle closed lower on Friday as it erased all of Thursday's gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 106.92. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.41. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.
May Feeder cattle closed down $2.43 at $135.62.
May Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.23. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144.64. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 130.80. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.09.
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May coffee closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.12 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed lower on Friday extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.02 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 27.55 is the next upside target.
May sugar closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 12.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.57 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cotton closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 76.44 is the next downside target.