KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, March 30, 2018
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. International Investment Position
N/A Marianas: Good Friday
N/A U.S. stock markets closed on Good Friday
Monday, April 2, 2018
9:45 AM ET. March US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.3)
10:00 AM ET. February Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous +0.0%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. March ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (previous 60.8)
Prices Idx (previous 74.2)
Employment Idx (previous 59.7)
Inventories (previous 56.7)
New Orders Idx (previous 64.2)
Production Idx (previous 62.0)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. Today's rally was underpinned by gains intechnology and energy stocks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 6192.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6877.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6877.01. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 7214.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 6421.00. Second support is February's low crossing at 6192.50.
The June S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2733.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2668.78. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2733.50. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 2588.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51.
The Dow closed higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,585.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 23,360.29 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,585.28. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 25,449.15. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 23,509.06. Second support is February's low crossing at 23,360.29.
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June T-bonds closed up 17/32's at 146-13.
June T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 148-28. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 142-30. Second support is March's low crossing at 142-21.
June T-notes closed up 45 pts at 121-015.
June T-notes closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 121.257 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.117 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 121.090. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 121.257. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 119.220. Second support is February's low crossing at 119.140.
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May crude oil closed higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 66.55. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.88. Second support is March's low crossing at 59.91.
May heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, January's high crossing at 208.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 207.28. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 208.95. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 199.02. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.90.
May unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 210.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 205.45. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 208.89. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 200.48. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.38.
May Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.745 thereby confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 2.831 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off March's high, December's low crossing at 2.504 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.764. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.831. First support is February's low crossing at 2.600. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.504.
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The June Dollar closed lower on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past three-months.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above 90.49 or below 78.83 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 88.53. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.83.
The June Euro closed slightly lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97. If June resumes the rally off the March 1st low, February's high crossing at 126.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 125.54. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is the March 1st low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97.
The June British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4041 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.4352 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4352. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4404. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4041. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.3779.
The June Swiss Franc closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0458 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0710 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0631. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0710. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0499. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0458.
The June Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.26. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.96. First support is March's low crossing at 76.33. Second support is weekly support crossing at 76.04.
The June Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9373 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9732 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9542. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9732. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9373. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.9343.
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June gold closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 1369.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1369.60. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1375.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30.
May silver closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 16.100 would confirm a downside breakout of the February-March trading range. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.697 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.697. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.025. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 16.100. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
May copper closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 281.96 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.04. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 315.04. First support is Monday's low crossing at 293.75. Second support is last September's low crossing at 293.25.
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May Corn closed up 14-cents at 3.87 1/2.
May corn closed sharply higher on Thursday in response to a friendly planted acreage report. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.82 3/4 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. Today's USDA report estimated U.S. corn acres will total 88.026 million acres. That’s nearly 1.5 million acres below the average trade guess of 89.48 million acres. With average yields, corn stocks at the end of the 2018 crop market year could drop below 2 billion bushels. The USDA’s data as of March 1 showed corn stocks came in above than trade estimates. Corn stocks in all positions rose 3% year-over-year, to 8.89 billion bushels. That includes a 2% increase in on-farm stocks (5.0 billion bushels) and a 5% increase in off-farm stocks (3.89 billion bushels). The average trade estimate for corn stocks was slightly lower, at 8.713 billion bushels. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's rally, March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.89 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 3.69 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 3.64.
May wheat closed up 6 1/4-cents at 4.51 3/4.
May wheat posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Thursday signaling a potential end to the decline off March's high. The USDA's estimate for winter wheat acres were close to pre-report estimates coming in at 32.71 million acres, versus the average trade guess of 32.62 million acres. The USDA was more bullish on spring wheat acres coming in at 12.63 million acres versus the average trade guess of 11.54 million acres.All-wheat stocks declined 10% year-over-year, to 1.494 billion bushels. Pre-report trade estimates were nearly identical, at 1.493 billion bushels. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.36 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's gap crossing at 4.67 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's gap crossing at 4.67. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.74 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 4.41 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.36.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 6 1/4-cents at 4.67 1/4.
May Kansas City wheat posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 4.85 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's gap crossing at 4.99 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.00 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down 11-cents at 5.78 1/2.
May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday following a bearish USDA acreage report. The USDA estimated 2018 Spring wheat acreage at 12.63 million acres versus the average trade guess of 11.54 million acres.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 5.59 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.14 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.14 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.29 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 5.75. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 5.59 1/4.
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May soybeans closed up 26 1/2-cents at 10.44 1/2.
May soybeans closed sharply higher on Thursday following today's friendly USDA planted acreage report. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.42 confirms that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible rest of March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. The USDA estimated significantly fewer soybean acres than trade analysts anticipated at 88.982 million acres, which was below the trade estimate range of 89.9 million to 92.10 million acres. The USDA’s estimates saw soybean stocks rise 21% year-over-year, to 2.11 billion bushels, with on-farm stocks up 28% and off-farm stocks up 17% from last March. The average trade guess, in contrast, was 2.030 billion bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 10.54. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 10.09 1/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.04.
May soybean meal closed up $12.70 at 384.00.
May soybean meal closed sharply higher on Thursday following a friendly USDA planted acreage report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 375.40 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends today's rally, March's high crossing at 404.00 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 348.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 386.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 348.30.
May soybean oil closed up 34 pts. At 31.96.
May soybean oil closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.28. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 32.96. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 31.58. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67.
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June hogs closed down $0.07 at $76.55.
June hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 71.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.60. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 72.95. Second support is weekly support crossing at 71.99.
June cattle closed down $3.00 at 102.58.
June cattle closed limit down on Thursday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.52 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 107.15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.52. First support is the 75% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 102.65. Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63.
May Feeder cattle closed down $4.47 at $134.02.
May Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Monday as it renewed the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, last June's low crossing at 131.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 145.00. First support is today's low crossing at 134.00. Second support is last June's low crossing at 131.10.
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May coffee closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.19 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 27.55 is the next upside target.
May sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 12.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.78 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cotton closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 79.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.76 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.