KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, March 23, 2018
8:30 AM ET. February Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous -3.7%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -2.7%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. February Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. February New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 620K; previous 593K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +4.6%; previous -7.8%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.1)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Investors have become unnerved by the prospect of a global trade war as China fired its first retaliatory salvo against tariffs of up to $60 billion announced by the Trump administration. Asian markets picked up the baton with deep losses and European stocks opened sharply lower. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 6485.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6607.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6607.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 7214.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6485.25. Second support is February's low crossing at 6192.50.
The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 2596.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2746.95 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2746.95. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2806.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2618.50. Second support is February's low crossing at 2596.10.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 146-01 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 142-30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 146-01. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 142-30. Second support is February's low crossing at 141-14.
June T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.226 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 119.220 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.226. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.020. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 119.220. Second support is February's low crossing at 119.140.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: MayNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 66.02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 65.74. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.02. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.27. Second support is March's low crossing at 59.91.
May heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 207.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 192.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 201.92. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 207.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 192.15. Second support is March's low crossing at 184.42.
May unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 208.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 204.27. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 208.89. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.32. Second support is 20-day moving average crossing at 195.13.
May Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, February's low crossing at 2.600 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.749 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.749. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.831. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.648. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.600.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower in overnight trading while extending the trading range of the past three-months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. If June resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 87.83 is a potential downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is March's low crossing at 88.91. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.93.
The June Euro was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 122.54 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 126.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 125.47. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is March's low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 121.97.
The June British Pound was higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.4352 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3989 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.4272. Second high is the reaction high crossing at 1.4352. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3989. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 1.3777.
The June Swiss Franc were higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0660 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0458 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0660. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0800. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0559. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0458.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.58 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.06 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.58. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.26. First support is Monday's low crossing at 76.33. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.06.
The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9740 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 0.9382 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9491. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9740. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 0.9382. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9341.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher overnight as investors push prices higher due to concerns over a potential trade war with China. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1338.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1348.10. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1369.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30.
May silver was higher overnight and poised to extend the rally off Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.756 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 15.705 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.756. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 16.895. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 16.100. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
May copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 295.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 311.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 308.59. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 311.48. First support is the overnight low crossing at 298.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 295.85.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight as it renewed this month's decline. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 3.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.83 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.83 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 3.69 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 3.64.
May wheat was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.36 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 4.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 4.67. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 3/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.47 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.36.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 5 1/2-cents at 4.71.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 4.99 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 4.99 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.10 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.58 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight and remains poised to extend the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 5.59 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.16 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.16 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 6.36. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.82 3/4. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 5.59 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were lower overnight as it renewed the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.46 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.46 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.04. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 9.87 1/4.
May soybean meal was lower overnight signaling an end to a three-day correction off Tuesday's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 377.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 348.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 377.40. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 348.30.
May soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off November's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.40. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 32.96. First support is March's low crossing at 31.43. Second support is the July-2016-low crossing at 31.37.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed down $1.75 at $75.48.
June hogs closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the August-2017 low crossing at 74.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.51. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.04. First support is today's low crossing at 74.90. Second support is the August-2017 low crossing at 74.65.
June cattle closed up $1.03 at 108.40.
June cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 105.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.30. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 117.15. Second support is the 62% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 105.97.
May Feeder cattle closed up $1.58 at $138.53.
May Feeder cattle closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, last August's low crossing at 134.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 141.08. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.43. First support is today's low crossing at 136.40. Second support is last August's low crossing at 134.10.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.26 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed slightly lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 25.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.02 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 12.00 is the next downside target.
May cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target.