Crude
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Started by Jim_M - March 21, 2018, 11:45 a.m.

Even with all the talk about US output climbing, there isn't much evidence that it is enough to overtake what OPEC has dropped off and increased demand.  

We could be on our way to $80.

I also read somewhere this morning a rumor that Saudi has put privatization of their oil industry on the back burner.  

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Re: Crude
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By Richard - March 21, 2018, 3:02 p.m.
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Wave 3 in oil has started. We are headed to $350. A couple years ago when I was bullish on oil it was because I thought Israel would attack Iran. I had good reasons for that but it never happened. This time, oil does not need a war to go up. It is just going up. $72 will provide good resistance, but even that is not going to stop it. Where are the traders who were looking for "Never above $50 and then later Maybe average around $55." Hope both of you are using stops.

Re: Re: Crude
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By Jim_M - March 21, 2018, 4:26 p.m.
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To be fair, who would have thought OPEC and Russian would ever find the discipline to dial down the oil taps a little bit, let alone work with each other.  

Venezuela collapsing doesn't hurt either.  

Re: Re: Crude
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By Beck - March 21, 2018, 10:39 p.m.
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Richard, 

Your hypothesis has proven correct relatively .  Venezuelan crude has gone from under 20 to much more than 350 Bolivars.  

Re: Re: Crude
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By Lacey - March 23, 2018, 1:11 p.m.
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Still think we fall back into the thirties without a war.  I agree the US would completely collapse well before $200. oil.

Re: Crude
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By Richard - March 21, 2018, 9:23 p.m.
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In bear markets each and every news story pushes the prices lower no matter what the story is and during bull markets the news stories push the market higher. Obviously Saudi is getting production cuts to stick because nobody could survive for long with the prices we had under $50 and be able to meet the demand we have. I always have been saying we never had an over supply. It was always a demand problem because the economy was not growing. We now have a growing economy and demand is just now starting to come back and will continue to increase until the next recession. As far as predictability, I am also sure there will be lots of juicy news stories when the price is at $200 that current traders will say they did not see coming. WOW. really. There have been many mistakes on my part but things have finally turned and oil is in a bull market crushing all predictions already. Your the first trader that I read or heard of even mention $80 as most are still talking about lower prices. Oh well . . .

Re: Re: Crude
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By TimNew - March 22, 2018, 7:30 a.m.
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The demand picture has certainly changed and the supply picture has not kept pace.


This does not change the fact that producers are ramping up, or that we have 19% less oil on hand YoY while price has increased by over 30%.


Further, without hyper-inflation, which seems unlikely at best,  the economy would collapse long before 200 dollar oil.


In the simplest terms,  oil is over bought.

By patrick - March 22, 2018, 12:24 p.m.
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Yep. Voluntarily restrained production when the global economy is in fairly good shape and renewable energy sources are increasingly productive is not a formula for a sustained price rise.