row crops
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Started by tar - March 18, 2018, 12:14 p.m.

how are we going to open tonite? what say you

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Re: row crops
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By mcfarm - March 18, 2018, 2:57 p.m.
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weather is the same. Demand is moving grains. Corn is due for spring move and it might as well start tonite

By bcb - March 18, 2018, 3:27 p.m.
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4 weeks or more corn has made higher highs and closed higher for the week.

We just had and outside week and the best break from a high of 13 cents.

We could see a test of the 200 day ma.

By tar - March 18, 2018, 4:42 p.m.
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looks like open will be lower -2 corn -4 beans

By bcb - March 19, 2018, 7:56 a.m.
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European Union threatens 25% retaliatory tax on US corn

By Jim_M - March 19, 2018, 9:55 a.m.
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That's the problem with a world economy.  Brazil will buy US corn and sell it to Europe

By bcb - March 19, 2018, 10:47 a.m.
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Grains act like sht.

This break if demand stays strong won't hurt demand one would HOPE.

Bulls are very silent today at the other place.

By Jim_M - March 19, 2018, 11:16 a.m.
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Corn has been turning down since the report came out.  So much for "bullish"

By bcb - March 19, 2018, 11:21 a.m.
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Report came out on the 8th. The following week we made new highs (higher highs 5 weeks in a row).

BUT last week we had an outside week  Now were looking at the 50% retracement for the yr=374.50

By silverspiker - March 19, 2018, 11:21 a.m.
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I am an old school mo-fo...


OATS ARE LEADING  THE VANDY POO POO !!!

By metmike - March 19, 2018, 1:53 p.m.
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Huge rains in Kansas over night/this morning. First in 4 months with more drought busting rains in the S.Plains on the extended maps today.

Somebody actually stated earlier this month that nothing grows there and the market doesn't care. 


http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/graphics/WW-HA-RGBChor.pdf


All the wheat contracts made a huge daily and weekly(break away) gap down lower on the open last night and have continued lower.

So did the front month corn gap lower by 1/2c. Large Funds have been loading up long all year(first to cover their initially massive short position), partly with expectations of the drought building because of the La Nina and have been caught on the wrong side.

By metmike - March 20, 2018, 10:01 a.m.
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Here's a treat for the forum..........some authentic information that the market uses to trade value in determining the price of our crops.

Contrast that with market, crop and weather misinformation intended to bash and discredit fellow posters here which flows freely from the individual that also excels at spewing hateful, anti Trump rhetoric in many of his posts that have zero to do with Trump. 


As shown previously, the severe Plains/Midwest drought from Feb/Mar has been whittled down to the S.Plains of KS/OK/TX, which is the key production area for our Winter Wheat crop(HRW). 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx


https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2013/03/7/usda-releases-new-maps-identifying-major-crop-producing-areas-united-states


Though the USDA does not report conditions for the entire crop and all states until April, KS/OK/TX have been reporting ratings and conditions for the last 3 weeks and also monthly ratings during the Winter..........so the market has been well aware of the deterioration of the Hard Red Winter Wheat crop this year because of the drought.


Here's an example:


#1 producer Kansas on March 18th(before the rain but released yesterday at 3pm):

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kansas/Publications/Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.php

Winter wheat condition rated 17 percent very poor, 38 poor, 34 fair,10 good, and 1 excellent. 


At the end of November, the KS crop was rated 14% poor/very poor(51% g/ex) in the last USDA report for the entire crop. Because of the severe drought, by the end of January, the KS crop had gone to 44% p/vp, to the last rating(before the rain) to 53% p/vp and only 11% gd/ex(in the far east that got some rain)


Here are the ratings for the end of November 2017 to compare with:


http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-11-27-2017.txt


So the $1 spike higher in wheat prices was almost entirely from the worsening drought and deteriorating Winter wheat conditions, as well as funds covering their record shorts in wheat and record shorts in corn(by buying). The same worsening drought and spiking wheat prices pulled up corn and beans(that were also assisted by the Argentina drought in Jan/Feb).

The US drought started breaking with massive rains earlier this month........putting the top in at the start of the month.

Kansas, finally got its first huge rain in 4 months Sunday Night and Monday, with more forecast in the extended which accelerated the price collapse as drought fears and long positions from huge funds got washed away.


However, there is 1 fact that we can't offset by these rains. The HRW crop is rated so low, that no matter how perfect the weather is from now on......in Spring, the crop has been permanently damaged and yield potential gone. p/vp can never recover to g/ex. It might get to fair in some locations. So the crop will be well below trend and well below average........but then, the huge price spike dialed the worst case scenario in  weeks ago and now, with rains returning, we have less than the worst case scenario.........a bad crop but maybe not a complete disaster.


Extended forecasts that added tons of rain to the driest spots yesterday:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php


OK vandy, your turn to tell us more about why the weather did/does not matter or Kansas isn't important(because mcfarm said it was).........and throw in your silly anti Trump rhetoric.