KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, March 16, 2018
8:30 AM ET. February New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.29M; previous 1.326M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -3.0%; previous +9.7%)
Building Permits (expected 1.33M; previous 1.396M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected -5.0%; previous +7.4%)
9:15 AM ET. February Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous -0.1%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 77.7%; previous 77.5%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.2)
10:00 AM ET. March University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 99.0; previous 99.9)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 90.2)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.1)
10:00 AM ET. January Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. January Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
Monday, March 19, 2018
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report – Industry
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6841.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 7214.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7034.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6841.40.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2740.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 2879.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2806.00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2879.10. First support is February's low crossing at 2663.00. Second support is January's low crossing at 2596.10.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 146-01 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 142-24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145-16. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 146-01. First support is February's low crossing at 141-14. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.
June T-notes were slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.313 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 120.165 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.230. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.313. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 120.165. Second support is February's low crossing at 119.140.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: AprilNymex crude oil was slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off February's low, the late-February high crossing at 64.24 is the next upside target. If April extends the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 57.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the late-February high crossing at 64.24. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.39. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 59.95. Second support is February's low crossing at 57.90.
April heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 190.89 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 180.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 190.89. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 196.86. First support is Monday's low crossing at 183.75. Second support is February's low crossing at 180.97.
April unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 194.86 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 165.19 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 194.86. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.74. First support is the reaction low crossing at 185.66. Second support is February's low crossing at 165.19.
April Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the reaction low 2.612 crossing at 2.612 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.639 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.833. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.983. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.612. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.565.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past three-months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 87.83 is a potential downside target. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 88.91. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.93.
The June Euro was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 126.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 125.47. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is March's low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 121.97.
The June British Pound was slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.4207 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 1.3628 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4207. Second high is January's high crossing at 1.4404. First support is March's low crossing at 1.3779. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 1.3628.
The June Swiss Franc were slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0559 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0715 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0715. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0986. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0559. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0458.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.41. First support is the overnight low crossing at 76.58. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.06.
The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9740 is the next upside target.Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 0.9382 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9491. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9740. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.9382. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9287.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1342.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1342.90. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1364.40. Third resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60.
May silver was slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past six-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 17.025 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If May renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 15.705 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.025. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.785. First support is the early-March low crossing at 16.160. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
May copper was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 319.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 304.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 319.08. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 329.05. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 305.55. Second support is February's low crossing at 304.65.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.83 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.01 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.01. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.83 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.72 1/4.
May wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.65 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.92 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.16 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.65 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.57.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 11 1/4-cents at 5.13 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.14 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off December's high, the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.44 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.83 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.57. First support is February's low crossing at 6.08. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.52 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10.91 1/2. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 10.27. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.19.
May soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If May extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 381.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 414.70. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 369.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00.
May soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off November's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.58 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.58. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 32.96. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 31.43. Second support is the July-2016-low crossing at 31.37.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $1.15 at $65.72.
April hogs closed lower on Thursday and below support marked by the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, last August's low crossing at 65.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.50. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 71.95. First support is today's low crossing at 65.67. Second support is last-August low crossing at 65.03.
April cattle closed down $1.15 at 121.85.
April cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 118.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 127.95. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 120.75. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
April Feeder cattle closed down $1.90 at $140.82.
April Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday as it renewed this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 139.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.60. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 153.10. First support is January's low crossing at 140.25. Second support is December's low crossing at 139.27.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Thursday as it posted a new low for the year. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.71 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 25.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 12.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.19 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cotton closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target.