KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, December 13, 2017
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 408.3)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +4.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 250.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +2.4%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1313.9)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +9.0%)
8:30 AM ET. November Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. November CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.1%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -1.0%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.2%; previous +2.0%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.8%; previous +1.8%)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Travel & Tourism Satellite Account
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 448.103M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.61M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 220.882M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.78M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 129.446M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.667M)
Refinery Usage (previous 93.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.948M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.284M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2017 (previous 1.400%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2018 (previous 2.100%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2019 (previous 2.700%)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision, followed by Janet Yellen press briefing
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 1.25)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 1.00)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 9)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 1.75)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
Thursday, December 14, 2017
8:30 AM ET. November Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.7%; previous +0.2%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.1%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +1.7%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 876.4K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2086.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 323K)
8:30 AM ET. November Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 237K; previous 236K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1908000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -52K)
9:30 AM ET. IMF regular press briefing
9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 53.5; previous 53.8)
9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.7)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected -0.1%; previous +0.0%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3695B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +2B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, December 15, 2017
8:30 AM ET. December Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (expected 16.5; previous 19.4)
Employment Idx (previous 11.5)
New Orders Idx (previous 20.7)
Prices Received (previous 9.2)
9:15 AM ET. November Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.9%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 77.2%; previous 77.0%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.6)
4:00 PM ET. October Treasury International Capital Data
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this year's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. If December resumes the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 6246.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 6446.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6246.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6206.00.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this year's rally into record territory.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2618.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2673.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2618.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2586.34.
The Dow gapped up and posted a new all-time high close on Tuesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the November 30th gap crossing at 23,959.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 24,552.97. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the November 30th gap crossing at 23,959.76. Second support is the November 29th gap crossing at 23,849.61.
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March T-bonds closed down 7/32's at 152-26.
March T-bonds closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-04 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 156-14 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 154-18. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 156-14. First support is the reaction low crossing at 150-30. Second support is October's low crossing at 149-07.
March T-notes closed down 40/32's at 124-045.
March T-notes closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below October's low crossing at 123.270 would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 123.180. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.208 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.208. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 125.065. First support is November's low crossing at 123.295. Second support is October's low crossing at 123.270.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
January crude oil posted a key reversal down on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January renews the rally off June's low, weekly resistance crossing at 60.00 is the next upside target. If January resumes the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 55.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 57.05. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 60.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 55.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 53.04.
January heating oil posted a new high for the year before posting a key reversal down on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 198.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 187.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 198.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 216.85. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 187.00. Second support is November's low crossing at 185.45.
January unleaded gas posted a key reversal down on Tuesday ending a three-day rally off last Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 173.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 160.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 179.40. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 181.51. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 166.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 160.49.
January Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it renewed the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.522 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.012 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.911. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.012. First support is today's low crossing at 2.673. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.522.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 94.76 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 94.23. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 94.76. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.09. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 92.23.
The March Euro closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.52 has opened the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.98 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at 120.44. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.50. First support is today's low crossing at 117.97. Second support is November's low crossing at 116.48.
The March British Pound closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3390 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 1.3695 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3598. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3695. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3300. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.3273.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0226 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at 1.0062 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.0352. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0415. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1.0103. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.0064.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below October's low crossing at 77.54 would open the door for a test of the 62% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 75.42. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 79.31 would renew the rally off October's low. First resistance is the reaction crossing at 78.17. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 80.42. First support is October's low crossing at 77.54. Second support is the July's low crossing at 77.16.
The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at 0.8783 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.8945 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.8945. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9072. First support is today's low crossing at 0.8840. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
February gold closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower price are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 1233.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1264.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1277.40. First support is today's low crossing at 1238.30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 1233.90.
March silver closed slightly lower on Tuesday and tested the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 15.626 as it extended the decline off November's high. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, July's low crossing at 15.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.609 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.099. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.609. First support is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 15.626. Second support is July's low crossing at 15.225.
March copper closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it continues to consolidate some of the decline off October's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.02 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the aforementioned decline, September's low crossing at 291.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 320.15. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.90. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 294.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 291.35.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down 1-cent at 3.48.
March corn closed lower on Tuesday and posted a new contract low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 3.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.58 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.58 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 3.48. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.
March wheat closed down 2-cents at 4.11 1/2.
March wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.43. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.60 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 1/4-cents at 4.11 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.40 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.40 1/4. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 3 1/4-cents at 6.05 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.31 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.31 3/4. Second resistance is November's high resistance crossing at 6.66. First support is today's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans closed down 6 1/4-cents at 9.76 1/4.
January soybeans closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 9.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.92 1/2 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 10.15. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 10.28 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 9.75. Second support is November's low crossing at 9.67.
January soybean meal closed down $3.50 at 324.20.
January soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 326.40 confirmed that a double top with July's high has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 332.70 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 332.70. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 348.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 321.90. Second support is November's low crossing at 311.60.
January soybean oil closed unchanged at 33.46.
January soybean oil closed unchanged on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.91 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 32.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 33.56. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.91. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 32.80. Second support is October's low crossing at 32.47.
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February hogs closed down $0.50 at $66.52.
February hogs closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 69.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 69.34. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 72.25. First support is November's low crossing at 66.25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 65.43.
February cattle closed up $1.43 at 119.15.
February cattle closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.89 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.89. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.78. First support is Monday's low crossing at 117.58. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06.
January Feeder cattle closed up $1.65 at $147.10.
January Feeder cattle closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 144.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 150.89 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 148.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150.89. First support is Monday's low crossing at 144.45. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 144.16.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 11.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at 18.51 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.36 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at 13.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.87 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.74 would confirm a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, April's high crossing at 74.74 is the next upside target.