KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
6:00 AM ET. January NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (expected 106.0; previous 104.9)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.9%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.7%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.2%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.0%)
11:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Q4 Household Debt and Credit Report
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.1M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.2M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.6M)
Refinery Runs
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 416.3)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +0.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 255.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1299.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. January CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.1%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -1.2%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.9%; previous +2.1%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.8%)
8:30 AM ET. January Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. January Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
10:00 AM ET. December Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 420.254M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.895M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 245.474M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.414M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 141.826M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.926M)
Refinery Usage (previous 92.5%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.843M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.16M)
Thursday, February 15, 2018
8:30 AM ET. January PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%: previous -0.1%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous -0.1%)
Personal Consumption (previous -0.2%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1769.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 751.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 415.5K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 226K; Previous 221K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -9K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1923000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -33K)
8:30 AM ET. February Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (expected 17.0; previous 17.7)
Employment Idx (previous 3.8)
New Orders Idx (previous 11.9)
Prices Received (previous 21.7)
8:30 AM ET. February Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 20.0; previous 22.2)
Prices Paid (previous 32.9)
Employment (previous 16.8)
New Orders (previous 10.1)
Prices Received (previous 25.1)
Delivery Times (previous 6.1)
Inventories (previous 9.4)
Shipments (previous 30.3)
9:15 AM ET. January Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.9%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.1%; previous 77.9%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.7)
9:30 AM ET. IMF regular press briefing
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. February NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (expected 72; previous 72)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2078B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -119B)
4:00 PM ET. December Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, February 16, 2018
8:30 AM ET. January Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.6%; previous +0.1%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +2.0%)
8:30 AM ET. January New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.24M; previous 1.192M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +4.2%; previous -8.2%)
Building Permits (expected 1.31M; previous 1.302M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +0.8%; previous -0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 94.6; previous 94.4)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 84.8)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 109.2)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
Monday, February 19, 2018
N/A U.S. Presidents Day / Washington's Birthday. Financial markets closed
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its gains of the past two trading sessions. The next big clue for market direction could come from Wednesday’s January consumer price inflation. There are concerns that if CPI comes in higher than expected, it could spark another selloff, as worries about higher prices and its effect on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hiking plans triggered last week’s dramatic volatility and declines.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6762.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the late-October low crossing at 6024.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6603.75. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6762.65. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 6217.54. Second support is the late-October low crossing at 6024.00.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its gains of the past two trading sessions. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2760.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2421.52 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2688.47. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2760.31. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2529.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2421.52.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they extend Monday's short covering gains. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 147-03 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 140-03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 145-11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 147-03. First support is Monday's low crossing at 143-04. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.
March T-notes were slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.221 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 119.170 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.221. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.312. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 120.170. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: MarchNymex crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 55.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.46 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.464. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.66. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 55.87. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 52.53.
March heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 178.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.94 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 195.67. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 213.62. First support is the 50% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 178.38. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 170.04.
March unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extend the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 162.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 184.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 184.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 193.93. First support is the overnight low crossing at 166.43. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 162.06.
March Henry natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 2.532 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.903 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.740. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.903. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.538. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.532.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.32. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 92.36. First support is January's low crossing at 88.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.83 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 122.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.83. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 125.76. First support is the reaction low crossing at 122.09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.34.
The March British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3719 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4031 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4031. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.4370. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1.3780. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3719.
The March Swiss Franc were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 1.0589 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the August-2016 high crossing at 1.0859 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0839. Second resistance is the August-2016 high crossing at 1.0859. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.0589. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0408.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.56 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 81.68. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.56. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.06.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, last-September's high crossing at 0.9364 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9157 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 0.9364. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9157. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.9073.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1337.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1337.90. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the Dec.-January-rally crossing at 1291.60.
March silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.899 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 15.635 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.899. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.705. First support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.635.
March copper was sharply higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 316.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 299.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 314.47. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 316.80. First support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58. Second support is the 87% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 299.03.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, last October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.58 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. Second resistance is last October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.58 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.54.
March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, last September's high crossing at 4.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.43 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.67 1/4. Second resistance is last September's high crossing at 4.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.43 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.32 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 12-cents at 4.77 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral to bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's high, the 38% retracement level of 2017's trading range crossing at 4.88 1/2. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.50 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 4.84 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of 2017's trading range crossing at 4.88 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.69 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.50 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 6.21 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.21 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 6.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were steady to fractionally lower overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.86 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.16 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 9.67 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 9.44 1/2.
March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends Monday's strong performance. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 362.10 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 344.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 359.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 362.10. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 344.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 337.80.
March soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.52 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.52. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 33.31. First support is the overnight low crossing at 31.75. Second support is the July-2016 low crossing at 31.19.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $1.68 at $70.53.
April hogs closed sharply higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 68.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 71.43. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.20. First support is today's low 68.55. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 68.07.
April cattle closed up $1.38 at 125.00.
April cattle closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 130.10 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.38. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.05. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.48 at $147.68.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 142.42 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 154.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 156.13. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142.42. Second support is January's low crossing at 140.13.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.34 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed sharply lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.85 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 21.20 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Monday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March renews the decline off January's high, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.14 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed slightly lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 73.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.