KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 8, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1881.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 409.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 289.1K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 233K; previous 230K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1953000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +13K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2197B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -99B)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
12:00 PM ET. January Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, February 9, 2018
10:00 AM ET. December Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.8%)
Monday, February 12, 2018
2:00 PM ET. January Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.
N/A U.S. President Donald Trump releases Fiscal Year 2019 budget proposal today at the earliest
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight. The stock market is trying to stabilize but remains down sharply for the week. The recent selling has been attributed to rising bond yields due to signs of inflation. However, another reason is that equities were due for a pullback after scoring huge gains in January and throughout 2017.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. At the same time, market volatility is likely to remain with us near-term as uncertainty over above concerns remains unsettled. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 6250.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6814.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6814.45. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 7047.25. First support is December's low crossing at 6250.00. Second support is the late-October low crossing at 6024.00.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight following Wednesday's lower close. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2785.06 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2421.52 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2785.06. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2878.40. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2529.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2421.52.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend Wednesday's loss. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 143-25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 146-16. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-01. First support is Monday's low crossing at 144-03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 143-25.
March T-notes were slightly lower overnight as they extend Wednesday's loss. Stochastics and the RSI turned neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 119.170 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.316 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.316. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.057. First support is Monday's low crossing at 120.180. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: MarchNymex crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high.Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.21 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.21. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.66. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 59.35.
March heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 186.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.39 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.39. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 213.62. First support is the overnight low crossing at 191.53. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 186.73.
March unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extend the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 169.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 186.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 186.77. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 193.93. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 175.35. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 169.66.
March Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 2.532 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.960 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.960. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.259. First support is January's low crossing at 2.693. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.532.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.49. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 92.36. First support is January's low crossing at 88.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 122.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 124.17 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 124.17. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 125.76. First support is the reaction low crossing at 122.09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.11.
The March British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3696 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4092 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4092. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.4370. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.3857. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3696.
The March Swiss Franc were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0597 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the August-2016 high crossing at 1.0859 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0839. Second resistance is the August-2016 high crossing at 1.0859. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0597. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0379.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.49 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.56. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 81.68. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.29. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 79.11.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 0.9073 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9218. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.9073. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8998.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1339.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1339.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the Dec.-January-rally crossing at 1291.60.
March silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 16.140 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.994 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.994. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.705. First support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.635.
March copper was slightly lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 322.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 325.75. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 329.10. First support is the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61. Second support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, last October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.56 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. Second resistance is last October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.49 1/2. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2.
March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, last September's high crossing at 4.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.58 3/4. Second resistance is last September's high crossing at 4.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.38. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.13 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 12-cents at 4.81.
March Kansas City wheat posted its highest close since last August as it closed sharply higher on Wednesday. Dry weather concerns along with a dry weather forecast for the region led to an upside breakout of a six-day trading range today. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's high, the 38% retracement level of 2017's trading range crossing at 4.88 1/2. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.45 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.82 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of 2017's trading range crossing at 4.88 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.61. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.45 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 6.21 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.21 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 6.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were higher overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Thursday's high crossing at 9.93 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 9.61 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.16 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 9.61 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 9.44 1/2.
March soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.80 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends the decline off January's high, minor support crossing at 319.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 344.90. First support is Monday's low crossing at 326.20. Second support is minor support crossing at 319.60.
March soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.19 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.19. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 34.10. First support is January's low crossing at 32.10. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $2.20 at $69.23.
April hogs closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 68.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 74.13. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.25. First support is today's low 68.87. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 68.07.
April cattle closed down $0.60 at 123.97.
April cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 130.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.38. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.28. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.43 at $148.30.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 154.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 156.13. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142.42. Second support is January's low crossing at 140.13.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.39 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target.
March cocoa posted a key reversal down with today's lower close. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 21.20 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.23 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 75.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.