4th qtr. GDP has HUGE miss
29 responses | 0 likes
Started by frey_1999 - Jan. 26, 2018, 10:25 a.m.

Well below the "Massive"  growth Rate coming out of the trump camp.

One positive is that the trump administration will be looking to hire a bunch more spin doctors soon  LOL 

Comments
By TimNew - Jan. 26, 2018, 12:24 p.m.
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You really should refrain from commenting on subjects you don't understand.


Here's a write up from Bloomberg,  certainly not Trump "spin Doctors"


"The 2.6 percent headline rate doesn't do justice to fourth-quarter GDP where consumer spending rose a very strong 3.8 percent that reflects a 14.2 percent burst in durable spending. Residential investment, which is another consumer-related component, rose at a very impressive 11.6 percent annualized rate. Turning to business spending, nonresidential fixed investment rose at a 6.8 percent rate which is the fourth straight mid-single digit result. Government purchases, at a 3.0 percent rate, also added to GDP in the quarter.

What pulled down fourth-quarter GDP were net exports, at an annualized deficit of $652.6 billion, and inventories which rose at a slower rate than the third quarter. Looking at final sales to domestic buyers, which excludes inventories and exports, GDP comes in at a robust 4.3 percent."

By TimNew - Jan. 26, 2018, 12:28 p.m.
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BTW, this is the 1st of 3 estimates.  I think upward revisions are likely.  So, in addition to your comment being uninformed, it's also premature.



By mcfarm - Jan. 26, 2018, 2:11 p.m.
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upward revisions?? after 8 long dark years of downward revisions

By cfdr - Jan. 27, 2018, 8:30 p.m.
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Funny.  Funny that 2.6% is now, with Donald Trump president, a poor number for growth.

Recently I looked up the numbers for the eight years prior to Trump taking the office, and they averaged 1.5%.

You're right, with a business friendly president, we expect more.

So, do you suppose that, when the number is the combined value of all goods and services - MINUS - the value of all imported goods and services, Christmas might have had "just a little" impact this past December?  When there were massive on-line sales?  Plus, with inventory declines, how much did that deduct?  (The number I read was 1.96% - FWIW, of course).  I also read where the BEA made the biggest deduction in history to the GDP growth rate.

Also, Secretary Wilbur Ross spoke in Davos about companies exporting massive amounts of parts this year anticipating a tough year ahead.


Remember this thread by a person with known TDS symptoms.  Let's revisit this come February 28th when the data is reviewed and the revision comes.  We must always remember how debilitating the symptoms of TDS are for many people.

By Vandenplas - Jan. 27, 2018, 9:15 p.m.
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Maybe that (TDS) explains his little, uh,  hands?

By cfdr - Jan. 28, 2018, 7:45 a.m.
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What's the matter, vandenplas?  Did you run out of competent women to fat-shame?

Was it you that shamed that woman on Fox for having thick legs - but still wearing skirts on TV?

Or, did someone just like you beat you to the punch?

By Vandenplas - Jan. 28, 2018, 8:33 a.m.
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Not me, sycophant.  I love women.  Women love me.  They let me do anything to them.  Kiss'em, grab'em by the puthy, anything.

By cfdr - Jan. 28, 2018, 12:29 p.m.
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Perfect.  These last two posts of yours perfectly illustrate who you are and why you are here.

They also confirm to me why it is that I no longer come here that often.

By metmike - Jan. 28, 2018, 12:36 p.m.
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Couldn't agree more cfdr!

By Vandenplas - Jan. 28, 2018, 3:46 p.m.
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When you consistently lose arguments and trash posters with whom you disagree, it certainly makes you want to take his marbles and go home.  You and MetMike have short fuses, short chains, thin skins, and maybe.........short  (small) hands?

By Vandenplas - Jan. 28, 2018, 3:46 p.m.
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When you consistently lose arguments and trash posters with whom you disagree, it certainly makes you want to take his marbles and go home.  You and MetMike have short fuses, short chains, thin skins, and maybe.........short  (small) hands?

By frey_1999 - Jan. 28, 2018, 1:22 p.m.
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The trump apologist seem to be claiming that exports don't matter and seemly that christmas does not fall in the same qtr. every year  who knew


Bloomberg not republican friendly  ?????    LOL 

By cfdr - Jan. 28, 2018, 3:04 p.m.
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"The trump apologist"

While I have repeatedly said that I don't much like the man, I find no reason to apologize for the man.  He has had a stellar year.  And, even I was not that impressed with the tax plan, since it was more of a "Republican plan" than a "Trump plan."  But, I have to admit, like a great many people in the business world have had to admit - it seems to be having even more impact than Donald Trump expected it to have.

You snowflakes with TDS need to ask yourselves - are the reasons you are so anti-Trump really IMPORTANT reasons, or are they merely ways your snowflake sensitivities are offended?


"Bloomberg not republican friendly  ?????    LOL"

Ah - got me there.  Of course, Michael Bloomberg has been SUCH a strong supporter of Donald Trump!

How could I have missed that  .  .  .

By metmike - Jan. 28, 2018, 7:18 p.m.
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Tried to send a few thoughts that disappeared before they could be posted.


This is really helping me to break my 17 year old habit of coming to MarketForum. 

By Vandenplas - Jan. 28, 2018, 7:39 p.m.
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I would think that, being the scientist you claim to be, you could figure out what your posting problem is, rather than appearing to cast blame either on the site or the moderator--as you have implied in several of your previous and present posts.    

By metmike - Jan. 28, 2018, 7:47 p.m.
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Thanks for making the MarketForum even more inhospitable vandy. 


Yes, I do have it figured out now.......


Bye!



By Vandenplas - Jan. 28, 2018, 8:16 p.m.
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We all knew you could figure it out.  Good job--and welcome back.

By frey_1999 - Jan. 29, 2018, 10:21 a.m.
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Name calling and trying to pigeon hole people into categories you need them to fit into, seems to make you feel like you have the power, but reality sucks and here it is.

In spite of what you seem to need me to be your not even close to reality but then dealing in reality is not something you ever were very good at.

I have ownership in a multitude of business operations, from the construction Industry, to strip malls, to agribusinesses that supply farmers with essential inputs and market there production, to the trucking industry,single family rental housing, to liquor stores and retail business outlets along with ag and developmental land holdings. And I can tell you the only one of those fields of operation that have shown a uptick in business is the Liquor stores. So excuses me if I don't think the Tax cuts are a huge utopia that you seem to think they are.

The tax bill is a detriment to Ag and trumps foreign policy ( or lack there of ) will be a killer to Ag.

The Construction Industry is coming off one of its poorest years since the housing collapse of 2008.

Strip malls which is the rosiest of the retail space is at best a struggle and if your in the wrong area it is a failure.

Single family Housing is taking a downturn as the cheap USD is driving up gas prices and taking away the rent money.

Good rate loads in the trucking industry have become almost none existent.

The tax Plan is a joke for the most part, Yes they cut taxes "for Most Americans" but that truly is a stretch at best and they most certainly did not reform taxes or the tax process, He!! they added about 5000 pages to the tax code and what little tax savings one will see " in their paycheck " is being eaten up by the effects of the added deficits.


but for someone to oppose this president and his policies you need them to be a snowflake with TDS whatever that is.

kinda sad don't you think

some of us look at the big picture, and its long term effects on this country and make decisions based on that others simply try to call posters names and fit them into a box that you need them to be in, sorry I not in your little world of boxes.        

By TimNew - Jan. 29, 2018, 10:28 a.m.
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So, you are disappointed that the tax cut, which has not actually taken effect yet, and will not show up in peoples checks till next month, other than the millions who are getting bonuses, that was passed about a month ago has not had much economic impact yet?


And none of your businesses are being impacted by the elevated consumer spending which is at multi-year highs?  You must be doing something wrong.


But you are not in a position to question others perception of reality. 

By frey_1999 - Jan. 29, 2018, 11:31 a.m.
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Yes I can be disappointed in a tax cut that causes two things -  adds to our deficit and by doing so weakens our dollar causing gas prices to rise taking disposable income from the working middle class and working poor ( the majority of my customer base )  along with a tax plan that will harm working farmers greatly.


As for your claim on consumer spending it may be at multi year highs but it is unsustainable and a bit ingenious adjusted for inflation it is not at the levels you portray it to and it is being driven by cuts to consumer savings and added debt. Which are not sustainable over time.

perhaps all of this will change over time but where I see the majority of the tax cuts going to does not give me hope that things get better, but then I have seen this rodeo a few times and do not believe and history has proven trickle down economics does not work it simply widens the income gap and deepens the national debt.

You might be correct that I don't know what businesses I should be in or how to do those businesses but so far following my business instinct's has work out rather well and I'm pretty sure I will stay the path.


Lastly when someone calls me names and try's tell me i have some made up disfunction without any knowledge of my back ground I can question and will question their perception of reality.

  

By Vandenplas - Jan. 29, 2018, 11:58 a.m.
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Great response.  Can't wait for the retorts, although I doubt there will be any.


   It sure looks like many posters have taken their marbles (and small hands,er, minds) and gone home.

By TimNew - Jan. 29, 2018, 12:58 p.m.
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"As for your claim on consumer spending it may be at multi year highs but it is unsustainable and a bit ingenious adjusted for inflation it is not at the levels you portray it to and it is being driven by cuts to consumer savings and added debt. Which are not sustainable over time.

Kinda tough to reply.  What do you mean by unsustainable and ingenious adjusted for inflation?  That, on it's face is nonsensical and I can't come up with an interpretation that comes close to making sense.


As far as "trickle down" not working,  you are correct as long as you ignore increases to income levels.


And you continue to cling to the nonsense about a deficit that was forecast based on a .8% increase to the GDP.


Your lack of understanding of basic economics and an apparent bias against the current admin which blinds you to the current economic growth disqualifies you from an intelligent conversation on the subject,  but of course  I'm certain you won't let that stop you.


By Vandenplas - Jan. 29, 2018, 1:18 p.m.
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Perhaps frey misspelled ingenuous?

By cfdr - Jan. 29, 2018, 11:59 a.m.
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"I have ownership in a multitude of business operations"

Maybe you just are a poor stock-picker, frey.


"The tax Plan is a joke for the most part"

Yes, I felt that way - pretty much, at least.  I have to admit that Tim was more correct than I was about this.  This just came out:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-atlantafed/atlanta-fed-sees-u-s-economy-expanding-at-4-2-percent-in-first-quarter-idUSKBN1FI1VU

Is Reuters and the Atlanta Fed good enough sources for you, or are you, like the old saying goes, telling me to believe you rather than my lyin' eyes?


TDS stands for Trump Derangement Syndrome.  There are lots and lots of people just like you out there.  Your hatred for him completely clouds your mind to anything positive he might do.  As I've said, quite a few times on here, I don't much like the man, but I can put that aside and look at the effect he has had without having that clouded mind.


And, again, if we do not take control from the globalist elites and the politicians they own, and if we cannot return decent jobs to this country - jobs where stuff is actually produced - we don't stand a chance of solving any of the problems we are facing.

I'm afraid that you are willfully blind to what has been happening this past year.  IMHO, Donald Trump can tweet all he wants - as long as he delivers on what is important.


But, seriously, maybe you should fire your stock-picker.



By cfdr - Jan. 29, 2018, 12:10 p.m.
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By frey_1999 - Jan. 29, 2018, 2:18 p.m.
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You must have misread my post --  I own the physical not the stocks of the Items listed.


My stock portfolio is much more concentrated mostly three companies but three very diversified companies.


Like I stated I rely on my Instincts as to where my money goes, have found over the years stockbrokers are mostly money takers not money earners.   


Its good that they are predicting over 4% growth but then again they predicted that last qtr and that is what this whole post started over. Here is a little wake up call we did not make it to 4% growth not even close.


we keep hearing of these great things to come and yet reality keeps punching the working class in the mouth.


but the 1% got their 400K tax refund 


A question for you, and I'm serious to see your answer -- What is the single common factor that happens to every country in the world right before it turns to  communism?

By cfdr - Jan. 29, 2018, 3:03 p.m.
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"Here is a little wake up call we did not make it to 4% growth not even close and that is with Inflation adding 1.8% to the gdp number a full .8% more than the last 4 years if you take that away from the posted number than what do you end up with??"

We made it to 2.6%.  We did that even though it was the fourth quarter, and on-line Christmas buying was huge.  This, as I've already said, heavily influenced the number downward.  By all accounts I've read, the growth was stellar when the imports for Christmas were factored in.

Also, what do you mean when you say "inflation adding 1.8% to the gdp number"?

By cfdr - Jan. 29, 2018, 7:09 p.m.
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I assume that you will answer my question about GDP growth and inflation.


"A question for you, and I'm serious to see your answer -- What is the single common factor that happens to every country in the world right before it turns to  communism?"

Do you want to have this conversation?  If so, maybe we should start a thread down in the NTR area.

By cfdr - Jan. 31, 2018, 9:51 a.m.
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https://tinyurl.com/y9s75qtf


  • Private companies hired another 234,000 in January, well above expectations for 185,000, according to ADP and Moody's Analytics.

frey  -  did you forget to answer my question??